Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Bet (Saturday, Nov. 30)

• No. 7 Tennessee looks to keep playoff hopes alive against rival Vanderbilt
• The latest Tennessee vs Vanderbilt odds have the Vols as 11-point road favorites
• Read below for Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction, odds and betting analysis

The college football regular season is reaching its climax, and one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 14 is the in-state rivalry between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The Vols, ranked No. 7 in the nation and No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings, will make the short trip to Nashville on Saturday, November 30, 2024, to face a resurgent Vandy team that’s already bowl-eligible for the first time under head coach Clark Lea.

The books have Tennessee as 11-point road favorites, with the total sitting at 48.5. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. EST at FirstBank Stadium, with ABC carrying the national broadcast.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Prediction

For Tennessee, this matchup screams trap game. Fresh off a 56-0 demolition of UTEP and dreaming of a playoff berth, the Vols can’t afford to sleep on this dangerous Vanderbilt squad. The Commodores have already proved they can shock the world, having stunned then-No. 1 Alabama in early October in what many called the upset of the year.

On paper, Tennessee should roll. The Vols boast an explosive offense that’s putting up 37.4 points per game and a defense that’s been absolutely suffocating, ranking fourth nationally by allowing just 13.1 points. With a signature win over Alabama already in their pocket, Tennessee looks primed for another statement win.

But here’s the thing – Vanderbilt’s been a thorn in Tennessee’s side lately. The Commodores have covered in three of the last five meetings, and they’ve got a dangerous dual-threat QB in Diego Pavia, who’s already accounted for 22 touchdowns this season. Their defense has been solid, too, giving up just 21.9 points per game.

The game plan for Vanderbilt is simple – control the clock with their impressive ground game (145.5 yards per game) and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline. While the Vols’ run defense has been stout (101.3 yards allowed per game), they haven’t faced an option attack like Vandy’s. If they can’t stay disciplined and force Pavia to throw, things could get interesting.

I’m predicting Tennessee will win, but Vanderbilt will keep it closer than the spread suggests. The Commodores have been in every game this season, with their average loss margin being just 7.6 points. Vandy should give the Vols fits for three quarters before Tennessee’s talent advantage finally shows up late.

• Pick: Vanderbilt +11 (-110)

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds

As Friday morning’s lines hit the board, Tennessee’s sitting as an 11-point favorite, with moneyline odds of Tennessee -425 and Vanderbilt +320. The total’s locked in at 48.5, with -110 juice on both sides.

Sharp money seems to be leaning Vandy’s way – the line’s already ticked down from 11.5 to 11. That’s no surprise given how the Commodores have been crushing it against the spread this season, posting an 8-3 ATS record overall and an even more impressive 7-1 ATS mark as underdogs. They’ve covered four of their last five, including a gutsy performance against LSU last week as 14-point dogs.

Vanderbilt’s first offensive play after the bye is a touchdown.

Diego Pavia finds Quincy Skinner for six on a 63-yard bomb.

Vanderbilt: 7, LSU: 0.pic.twitter.com/ycHsjeasot

— Joey Dwyer (@joey_dwy) November 24, 2024

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s been struggling to cover numbers lately, going just 1-3 ATS in their last four despite being double-digit favorites throughout. Their lone cover came last week against UTEP.

The under’s been hitting for both squads lately. Vanderbilt’s gone under in five of their last six, while Tennessee’s stayed under in three of four. With both defenses playing lights out, the modest 48.5 total makes sense.

Odds as of November 29, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on CFB Rivalry Week.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Head to Head

The Vols have owned this rivalry historically, winning 80 of 117 meetings with five ties thrown in. They’re riding a five-game win streak, though NCAA violations wiped two wins (2019-2020) from the books.

Recent history:

As you can see, Tennessee has won each of the last five meetings by at least 14 points, but they’ve only covered the spread twice in that span. In fact, Vanderbilt has been a thorn in the Vols’ side in recent years, covering the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2012.

The Commodores have also pulled off a few outright upsets in this series, winning as 3-point underdogs in 2018 (38-13) and as 8-point underdogs in 2016 (45-34). So while Tennessee has had the upper hand lately, Vanderbilt has shown the ability to rise to the occasion in this rivalry.

One trend to keep an eye on is the total. The over has hit in three of the last four meetings between these teams, with each game going over 50 total points. However, with both defenses playing at a high level this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a lower-scoring game on Saturday.