Miami vs Duke Prediction, Picks & Odds – CFB Week 10

• Miami is a 20.5-point favorite over Duke in Week 10 College Football action on Saturday, November 2
• The Hurricanes lead the nation in scoring at 46.8 points per game
• Check out the latest Miami vs Duke prediction, picks and odds below

According to advanced projections, #5 Miami (8-0, 4-0 ACC) has the best chance of all the remaining undefeated teams to win out (37.5%). The Hurricanes’ perfect record will be on the line Saturday, when they host ACC rival Duke (6-2, 2-2 ACC).

Online sportsbooks are extremely bullish on Miami this week, pegging them as massive chalk in the College Football odds.

Duke vs Miami Odds

The Hurricanes are currently favored by 20.5, after opening at -21. As of Friday afternoon, the public is ignoring Miami’s impeccable record, siding with the underdog instead. The Blue Devils are currently drawing 81% of the spread tickets and 83% of the money according to the College Football public betting trends.

Total-wise, the over/under is down a point from 55.5 to 54.5, despite the Hurricanes boasting the number one ranked offense. The majority of bettors disagree with the move, as the over is garnering 71% of the bets and 78% of the handle.

Kickoff for his rivalry game is set for Noon Et at Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami, FL, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

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Odds as of November 1 at 2:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 10 College Football matchup.

Strength vs Strength

Miami isn’t a lock to be a postseason team in the College Football Playoff odds, but their -400 price tag suggests they have an 80% chance of being one of the final 12. None of their remaining four opponents has a winning conference record, and SP+ gives them a greater than 75% win probability in each outing.

The Hurricanes have been the country’s most potent offense, averaging 46.8 points per game. They haven’t put up less than 36 points all season, and quarterback Cam Ward is the number three contender in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Ward is second in the nation in passing yards and passing TD, and third in QBR. Miami is averaging 7.6 yards per play, with a 59% third down conversion rate, and has five wins of at least 22 points.

But here’s the problem. They have yet to play a top-20 defense this season. Last time out, they faced a Florida State defense that is statistically among the toughest they’ve seen all year, and Ward looked human. He completed a season-low 62% of his throws, for only 208 yards with no touchdowns.

Does Miami continue its undefeated season or will Duke pull off the impossible? pic.twitter.com/HUiQpQmKjf

— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) November 1, 2024

He was pressured on 30.8% of his dropbacks and sacked four times. Ward didn’t commit any turnovers, but you can see why that kind of pressure is worrisome.

That’s amplified this week for two reasons. The Blue Devils are a top-30 pass rush per Pro Football Focus, and SP+ grades them as one of the most disruptive defenses based on turnover rate, tackles for a loss and forced fumbles.

They’re rated 20th in defensive SP+, and have held six of their eight opponents below 21 points. Not surprisingly, they’re a perfect 6-0 in those contests.

Miami vs Duke Prediction

Duke forced six turnovers a week ago, and narrowly avoided upsetting #22 SMU. The Blue Devils lost 28-27 in overtime, despite a season-best performance from QB Maalik Murphy. The Sophomore threw for 295 yards and three scores, improving his TD-to-INT rate to 17-to-5.

Duke is a much more efficient passing offense than rushing, but will have its hands full with Miami’s defense. The Hurricanes are holding enemy offenses to a 58% completion rate, while sacking the quarterback on 8% of their pass rushing snaps. They also rank top-11 in coverage per PFF and top-20 yards per pass allowed.

Duke vs Miami Last 5 Meetings

If Murphy is going to have success he’ll need to be razor sharp, but there is reason for optimism. The Blue Devils operate at a quick tempo and Murphy gets the ball out fast. That pace can slow down a pass rush, and if Duke can replicate last week’s third down efficiency (50% conversion rate), they’ll be able to keep Miami’s vaunted offense off the field.

We’re not asking the Blue Devils to win this game, simply cover. That’s something they’ve done in four of their last five outings, pushing in the only other instance.

The Hurricanes on the other hand, started the year with four consecutive 24+ point wins, but lately they’ve been playing with their food. They failed to cover in each of their past three contests when laying double-digit points, narrowly escaping with one and four point wins over Virginia Tech and California.

• Duke +20.5 Points (-108)