Houston Texans vs New York Jets Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for TNF (Week 9)

• The New York Jets look to snap a five-game losing streak when they host the Houston Texans on TNF on Oct. 31
• Houston placed leading WR Stefon Diggs (ACL tear) on IR this week
• Below, see the Texans vs Jets predictions, picks, and where to find the best odds

It’s now or never for the New York Jets (2-6, 1-2 home, 2-6 ATS). The losers of five straight have fallen 2.5 games back of a postseason berth in the AFC and can ill-afford a sixth straight setback when they host the AFC South-leading Houston Texans  (6-2, 2-2 away, 3-4-1 ATS) on Thursday Night Football on October 31st (8:20 pm ET). The Texans will have to do without leading receiver Stefon Diggs due to an ACL tear.

Houston Texans vs New York Jets Predictions

• Texans moneyline (+110) at bet365
• Under 42.5 (-115) at FanDuel

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The Texans vs Jets spread opened at Houston -1.5 on Sunday night but, when new of Diggs’ injury spread, the line swiftly crossed zero and now the Jets enter TNF as a slight home favorite, despite a horrendous string of results over the last two months.

Most recently, New York fell on the road to the Patriots, who had themselves lost six in a row entering Week 8. The once-highly-thought-of Jets defense somehow surrendered 25 points to the Pats while only allowing 247 total yards.

New York’s D now ranks a mediocre 12th in scoring (21.3 PPG) and 20th in D-DVOA (+3.8%). The team as a whole is an ugly 24th in DVOA (-14.4%), which is worse than Jacksonville (-12.9%) and only narrowly ahead of their MetLife roommates the Giants (-17.4%).

Houston, meanwhile, has compiled a 6-2 record without getting MVP-level play from sophomore QB – and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year – CJ Stroud. Stroud’s passer rating of 95.6 is solid but well below the 100.8 number he posted as a rookie. As a result. the Texans have slipped all the way to 20th in O-DVOA.

Will Anderson Jr. just makes it look so easy. pic.twitter.com/XREEDdbWAD

— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 28, 2024

Contrary to preseason expectations, it’s been Houston’s defense that’s propelled the team to the top of the AFC South. The Texans’ D is currently second in the entire NFL in D-DVOA (-20.0%), trailing only Brian Flores’ Vikings. Will Anderson Jr (7.5 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (5.5 sacks) have become arguably the best 1-2 pass-rushing punch in the league.

The line has moved way too far based on the absence of one (albeit very good) receiver. The Texans deserved to be favored when the opening Week 9 odds came out and should still be favored now.

Best Texans vs Jets Odds

There is only a small discrepancy in the moneyline odds across sportsbooks. The majority list the line at Texans +110/Jets -130 but BetMGM and DraftKings have a slightly better line on the Jets (-125).

Likewise, BetMGM, DraftKings, and Fanduel list the spread at Jets -1.5 instead of Jets -2.0, which is the current spread at bet365, Caesars, and ESPN Bet.

There is only a half-point range in the game total. The O/U is sitting at 42.0 (O -110/U -110) at BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars, which represents the best option for over bettors. The total is 42.5 (O -106/ U -114) at FanDuel, which is the best price that under bettors are going to find in the Week 8 NFL odds.

New York has faded to a dismal +538 in the NFL playoff odds ahead of Week 9, which is just a 15.87% implied probability. Only one of the six teams that finished 9-8 last year made the postseason field. To get to 10-7, the Jets would have to go 8-1 the rest of the way. Houston is a ludicrously short -3500 to make the playoffs and -1354, on average, to win the South in the NFL division odds.