NFL Picks for Week 7: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

• Want some help in betting the remaining 14 games in Week 7 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
• I have shared my NFL picks for Week 7 alongside my SBD formula’s “computer” picks
• Check out the underdogs we believe can pull off an upset in Week 7 below

After a rather unexciting start to Week 7, I think I speak for many in saying I can’t wait for Sunday to get some more NFL! We are treated to 14 more NFL games in Week 7, starting with an early Sunday game in London and concluding with a Monday night doubleheader. Before we get there, I wanted to share my favorite NFL picks for Week 7, and also reveal my SBD formula’s picks.

As was the case last week, my “favorite” picks are focused on underdogs I am betting to not just cover, but pull off the upset, meaning I am betting them on the moneyline. I went 2-1 on my upset picks last week, winning 1.3 units, while my SBD formula went 2-3, losing 0.7 units. If you’re wondering where the extra win came from, I tweeted out the Bears pick when the line shifted towards Jacksonville, making them an underdog. Be sure to follow me to get any future added plays!

Here’s who my SBD formula and I are picking in Week 7!

Week 7 NFL Picks

At the moment, I only have one upset pick I am betting in Week 7, but it is a pick my SBD formula is not making, which is unusual from the last few weeks. My SBD formula is predicting three upsets this week, but also has a bunch of other games with very tight margins of victory.

It is likely that, between the time of me publishing this article and you reading it, the moneyline odds above have changed. To be sure you are getting the best price on the bets above, as well as any other NFL moneyline, spread, or total bet you wish to make, check in with our NFL odds page, which does the line shopping for you.

If you wanted to see picks for all 14 games still to be played in Week 7, you have technically seen them. My SBD formula is only predicting upsets in three games, meaning it has favorites winning the other 11. However, it has margins of victory of three or less in four of those games – not to mention, it only has the Lions winning by 1.8 points. All of the Eagles, Rams, 49ers, and Ravens are predicted to win their matchups, according to my SBD formula, but none win their respective matchup by more than three points, with the Rams only winning by 0.1.

With a couple very small spreads this week, and a couple spreads seeming to be on the move, there’s a chance I may add some more plays ahead of kickoff. If any games were to see the favorites change, my SBD formula may also have an extra play or two. So, be sure to follow me on Twitter/X if you want those picks!

While I won’t disclose exactly why my formula likes the teams above, since I am trying to keep it my formula, I’m happy to dive into why I like the Chiefs below! And if you’re looking for more than just moneyline NFL picks, Zach Reger has put out his Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread, and John Hyslop has offered his favorite Week 7 NFL Player Props.

Chiefs Over 49ers

With this game being in San Francisco, I am viewing it as a true 50/50 game. This means there is value in the Chiefs, who are getting +108 odds to win at FanDuel. Those odds imply Kansas City only has a 48.1% chance to win, which is why I’m putting one unit down on the Chiefs.

Though the 49ers rank second in passing yards, I believe the threat of their rushing attack is what makes their offense go. San Francisco averages 5.0 yards per carry, good for seventh-best in the NFL, and have recorded the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league. With defenses needing to focus on slowing the ground game, it allows Kyle Shanahan to draw up plays to get the ball to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in space, often leading to big chunk plays – they rank second in net yards per pass attempt.

However, with Jordan Mason’s status “up in the air” as of Friday morning, I don’t fully trust him being left off the injury report now (at the time of writing this). I think there’s still a chance we see Mason either not get any touches because he’s not healthy, or just not be as effective because of the shoulder injury. If rookie Isaac Guerendo is forced into action, I’m not sure he can be everything San Francisco needs him to be. I love Guerendo’s big-play speed, but he hasn’t been getting past the front-line defenders as frequently as Mason (or Christian McCaffrey).

So, if the ground game is not as effective for the 49ers, I don’t love their chances. Though I am not saying Brock Purdy is a bad quarterback, I just don’t know the offense is as efficient if he’s being asked to simply drop back and put the offense on his shoulders.

I also have yet to mention that San Francisco also has to deal with one of the best run defenses in the league on Sunday. Kansas City allows just 3.7 yards per carry (4th) and have surrendered fewer than 83 yards on the ground in four of five games – the outlier is the result of Lamar Jackson running for 122 yards against them in Week 1. Even if the 49ers ground game is at full speed with Jordan Mason, they may get stifled by the Chiefs.

Defensively, I don’t think San Francisco is anything special right now. They have a good defense who can get after the passer, but they haven’t been great against the run and I think their secondary might be a little overrated. I believe they have benefitted from not having played many good offenses yet. The Vikings scored 23 points against them in a win, the Rams put up 27 without Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, and the Cardinals scored 24 while upsetting the Niners.

I’m not here to say the Chiefs have the explosive offense they once did in the Tyreek Hill days, but they seem to just always do enough. The loss of Rashee Rice will definitely be felt as Kansas City finds themselves in close games, but Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Xavier Worthy have allowed the offense to continue rolling along. The return of Kareem Hunt has also been huge, and I believe Andy Reid will continue to lean on their ground game while the aerial attack adjusts to life without Rice.

I’m happy to bet the Chiefs to do just enough again on Sunday at plus-odds!

• Pick: Chiefs moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)

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