New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions, Picks & Odds (Game 4)
By Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Cleveland Guardians try to even up the ALCS against the New York Yankees in Game 4 Friday
- New York starts Luis Gil, while the home side counters with Gavin Williams
- See the Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 odds, predictions, and pick for Oct. 18
What a turn of events.
With the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 away) up two runs and one out away from moving to a 3-0 series lead in the American League Championship Series, the Cleveland Guardians (92-69, 50-30 home) rallied with a 2-run HR to push it into extras, before David Fry’s 2-run bomb in the 10th breathed life back into Progressive Field.
Does that momentum carry over for “Believeland” where they look for a 2-2 tie in a crucial Game 4 tilt?
The Yankees are still in good shape and should have the pitching advantage with 15-game winner Luis Gil on the bump, going against Gavin Williams, who was just 3-10 for the Guardians in the regular season. That’s a big reason why they’re favored in Friday’s MLB odds.
Game 4’s first pitch goes at 8:08pm ET , with TBS/truTV/Max carrying the broadcast.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds (Game 4)
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -120 | -1.5 (+145) | O 7.5 (-118) |
| Cleveland Guardians | +100 | +1.5 (-175) | U 7.5 (-102) |
Despite their dramatic comeback, Cleveland is listed as a +100 underdog, with the Yankees priced as -120 road favorites. New York is getting +145 odds to win by at least two runs, with the Guardians at a short -175 to keep it within a run. Every game in the ALCS has been decided by two runs or more.
Odds as of Oct. 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to wager on the 2024 MLB playoffs.Â
This latest setback hasn’t dimmed the Yankees’ perch at the top of the updated World Series odds, as short as -110 and as long as +140.
NYY vs CLE Game 4 Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil vs Gavin Williams
| Gil | vs | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| 15-7 | Record | 3-10 |
| 3.50 | ERA | 4.86 |
| 3.83 | xERA | 4.14 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 26.8% | K% | 23.8% |
Gil will be making his first postseason start in 2024, as the scheduling quirks of New York’s postseason – a first round bye, plus off days between Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS – kept pushing him off the bump.
He has not pitched since September 28, and there’s no real way to tell how he’ll look after 18 days off between starts.
Gil’s last two starts to close out the regular season were rough. He walked three and gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings but was carried to a 7-4 win against the A’s in his second-to-last start.
He was shelled for six earned on six hits and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning in his last start, a 9-4 loss to the Pirates.
Gil faced Cleveland only once in 2024, lasting only three innings on August 20, giving up three earned runs and walking six in an eventual 9-5 loss.
Aaron Judge (48)
Opponent: Cleveland Guardians
Pitcher: Gavin Williams
Date: 8/22/24Exit Velocity: 104.6mph
Distance: 360ft
Launch Angle: 32° pic.twitter.com/GmkEF9IRpi— Yankees Home Runs (@NYY_HR) August 22, 2024
It’s been even longer since we’ve seen Williams, who last pitched on September 22, and he’ll get the call in the biggest game of the Guardians’ season.
It was a forgetful end of year run for the second-year righty, who finished 2-7 in his last eight starts, including Cleveland losing each of his final four appearances.
He struggled in his lone start against New York on September 22, lasting just four innings, surrendering four hits (including a HR to Aaron Judge), four walks and three earned runs in a 6-0 defeat.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 4 Predictions
If you believe in baseball magic, then there’s some sort of spell brewing after watching that Jhonkensy Noel homer in the bottom of the ninth to quite literally breathe life into what was a near Guardians corpse.
Then again, New York has yet to drop consecutive games in the postseason.
BIG CHRISTMAS TIME!
THE ULTIMATE PRESENT UNDER THE TREE! pic.twitter.com/6PhEOHuyds
— MLB (@MLB) October 18, 2024
These two mirror each other offensively, separated by one run, one home run and .005 between batting averages. Both Cleveland and New York lineups should be able to capitalize on starting pitchers that should feel the weight of this game from the jump.
Williams has not been good at home, carrying a 6.55 ERA at Progressive, while Gill will be trying to shake off the rust against a team that ranks 10th in the majors in runs scored at home, at 4.7 per contest.
This should be an exciting one, and like the previous three games, should be enough runs to push this to an Over. The Over is 2-0-1 in the ALCS.
NYY vs CLE Game 4 pick:
- Over 7.5 (-118)Â
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
