Florida State vs Duke Predictions & Lines (Friday, Oct. 18)

• Duke is a 3-point favorite over Florida State in Week 8 College Football action on Friday, October 18
• The Seminoles rank 125th nationally in points per game
• Check out the latest Florida State vs Duke prediction and lines below

At first glance, a betting line that favors Duke over Florida State screams any sport but College Football. After all, the Blue Devils (5-1, 1-1 ACC) have never beaten the Seminoles (1-5, 1-4 ACC) in 22 tries on the gridiron. However, things are different this year. Florida State is off to a nightmare start, while Duke is just one win away from being Bowl eligible in mid-October.

Online sportsbooks expect that victory to come on Friday night per the College Football odds, when these two ACC rivals meet in Durham, NC.

Florida State vs Duke Odds

The Blue Devils are currently 3-point favorites, in a contest with a low total of 42.5. As of Thursday afternoon, the betting action is completely one-sided per the College Football public betting trends, with Duke drawing 77% of the spread tickets and 78% of the handle.

Total-wise, the over is garnering 90% of the bets, which suggests that this line could be moving soon. We disagree with a potential line move, as the statistics suggest this matchup profiles as a low-scoring affair.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET at Wallace Wade Stadium, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

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Odds as of October 18 at 11:30 am ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 8 College Football matchup.

Florida State Has Been a Major Disappointment

It wasn’t long ago that Florida State was considered a College Football Playoff odds contender. They were fresh off an undefeated regular season in 2023, and optimism was high that DJ Uiagalelei could run an efficient offense. Six games into 2024 and the Uiagalelei experiment has failed, and the Seminoles offense is one of the worst in the country.

Florida State is averaging 14.8 points per game, which ranks 125th nationally. Uiagalelei and recently appointed starter Brock Glenn have combined to complete 53% of their passes, with more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6).

They’re converting less than 29% of their third downs, and average a pathetic 2.2 yards per rush attempt. The Seminoles haven’t exceeded 16 points since Week 1, and have an average point differential of 10.5 per outing.

So close!
Out of 133 FBS football teams, Florida State is 132nd in rushing. Only Kent State is keeping the Noles out of the cellar.
Just an abomination. pic.twitter.com/MtliPXatzQ

— Corey Clark (@Corey_Clark) October 6, 2024

Defensively, the metrics aren’t much prettier, especially versus the run. Florida State ranks last in the ACC in that category, and 102nd in the country. They’re much stronger against the pass, but they’ll need to stay competitive in this matchup in order to exploit that. Far too often they’ve fallen behind early, and teams have been content to beat up on them via the run.

Duke May Be Overrated

As for Duke, needless to say they’ve exceeded expectations so far, but it’s worth noting who they’ve played. Of their five victories, only two of have come against teams with a winning record (Northwestern and UConn), and neither of those opponents are ranked inside the top-70 per SP+.

The Blue Devils have actually had the easiest conference schedule so far, and rank outside the top-75 in strength of schedule nationwide. Despite the mediocre competition, the offense hasn’t lit the world on fire. They’re averaging only 26 points per game, and rank outside the top-80 in yards per carry and yards per pass.

QB Maalik Murphy has been mistake prone at times with five interceptions, and is fresh off his two worst games of the season.

Final. pic.twitter.com/4mR0y6gcKW

— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) October 6, 2024

Murphy completed only 50% of his passes in contests versus Georgia Tech (loss) and North Carolina (1-point win), while absorbing four sacks. Duke will want to lean on running back Star Thomas, who’s eclipsed 100+ yards rushing in three of his last four games.

Defensively is where the Blue Devils should find success. Duke grades out 15th on that side of the ball per SP+, yielding only 20 points per outing. They’ve limited enemy offenses to less than 5.0 yards per pass, while forcing 1.8 turnovers per game.

Florida State vs Duke Prediction

It seems like everyone and their mother is backing the over in this matchup, but the numbers suggest otherwise. The Seminoles offense is broken, while the Blue Devils are being propped up by a soft schedule. Duke should find success on the ground, but a run-heavy scheme bleeds the clock dry and strengthens our case for the under.

Florida State vs Duke Over/Under Trends

As for the trends, they support a low-scoring result as well. The under is 4-2 in Blue Devils games this season, including 4-0 at home. We mentioned Florida State hasn’t cleared 16 points since their season opener, and that’s led to the under going 5-1 in their contests.

Seminoles games are falling short of the total by an average of 9.6 points per game this season, while Duke outings are staying under by an average of 4.9 points per outing.

• Under 42.5 Points (-110)