New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Game 4

• The New York Yankees are big road favorites in Game 4 against the Kansas City Royals
• Gerrit Cole is back on the mound for New York against Michael Wacha for KC
• Get the Game 4 Yankees vs Royals predictions, picks, and best odds on Thursday, Oct. 10

Giancarlo Stanton’s eighth-inning home run last night gave the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 away) a narrow 3-2 Game 3 victory, which moved the Kansas City Royals (86-76, 43-38 home) within a game of elimination in the best-of-five ALDS. Sending ace and reigning AL Cy Young-winner Gerrit Cole back to the mound on Thursday, the Yankees are sizable -155 road favorites to close out the series at Kauffman Stadium tonight at 7:08 pm CT/8:08 pm ET.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Predictions (Game 4)

• Royals moneyline (+130) at BetMGM
• Under 8.0 (-114) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB playoff betting record: 16-12 (+4.15 units)

Kansas City’s Game 3 setback was its seventh straight home loss. The Game 4 pitching matchup – Gerrit Cole vs Michael Wacha – is a repeat of Game 1, when neither starter was terribly effective. Wacha gave up three runs on four hits and three walks with three Ks in just 4.0 innings, while Cole lasted 5.0 innings but gave up three runs on a concerning seven hits and two walks with only four Ks.

Cole was not his dominant self in an injury-shortened regular season. Two phenomenal starts at the end of September lowered his ERA from nearly four to 3.41 but his K% of 25.4 was down from 27% last year, and his BB% of 7.4% was up from 5.8.

A handful of Royals have also enjoyed success against Cole over their careers: Maikel Garcia is 4-for-7, MJ Melendez is 4-for-8 with a homer, and Tommy Pham is 13-for-36 (.361 avg) with two long balls.

NYY vs KC Game 4 Starting Pitchers: Cole vs Wacha

Wacha, on the other hand, has outstanding numbers against the Yankee lineup, even factoring in Saturday’s less-than-stellar performance. In 97 total ABs, the Yankee hitters have just a .155 average and .509 OPS. Aaron Judge is just 1-for-20 against Wacha with 12 strikeouts. 

No one is claiming Wacha gives KC a pitching advantage over Cole, but based on his history, this is (counterintuitively) one of the better lineups for him to be facing.

Best Yankees vs Royals Odds for Game 4

Thursday’s MLB odds list the Yankees as sizable moneyline favorites across the board. The best price bettors can find on a Yankee victory is -150 at bet365. BetMGM currently has the best odds on a Royals SU win at +130.

There over/under run total fluctuates between 7.5 and 8.0 depending on the sportsbook. If you are looking to wager the under, I recommend going to FanDuel, which has under 8.0 at -114. Over bettors should head to DraftKings, which is offering over 7.5 at -120.

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Thursday’s MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the Yankees’ moneyline. So far 63% of moneyline handle and 81% of moneyline tickets are on New York to close out the series tonight. The public has gone an astonishing 11-3 SU on its moneyline bets so far in the LDS.

The public also likes over 8.0, putting 67% of run-total handle on the over as of 2:50 pm ET.

With their Game 3 victory yesterday, the Yankees re-established themselves as the outright favorites in the 2024 World Series odds at +208. The Royals faded from +1017 to +2033.