Yankees vs Royals Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Game 3 (Oct. 9)

• The Royals host the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday night
• Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees against Seth Lugo for the Royals
• Below, find the Royals vs Yankees picks, predictions, and best available odds for Oct. 9

After falling behind early in Game 2, the Kansas City Royals (86-76, 45-36 home) stormed back for a 4-2 win to even their best-of-five ALDS with the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 away) and, as the series shifts to Missouri for Game 3, the Royals have an excellent chance to push the Pinstripes to the brink of elimination. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 6:08 pm CT/7:08 pm ET on Wednesday night.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royal Predictions

• Royals moneyline (-102) at DraftKings
• Under 7.5 runs (+110) at ESPN Bet

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB playoff betting record: 10-8 (+2.47 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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The Yankees were the best road team in all of baseball this year, and 28-year-old Clarke Schmidt is a quality arm to be rolling out in Game 3 of a best-of-five. But Schmidt hasn’t had a lot of success against the Royals in his brief MLB career. The current KC lineup has 51 total ABs against the 6’1 righty and mashed a .314 average and 1.006 OPS with four home runs (one each from Adam Frazier, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Massey, and Salvador Perez).

Schmidt also showed signs of fading down the stretch. In his final four starts of the regular season, his ERA went up from 2.41 to 2.85. In the last two, he allowed seven runs on seven hits and five walks over just 9.1 innings, though he was still getting swings-and-misses (12 Ks).

Lugo, on the other hand, only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his final six starts, lowering his ERA from 3.05 to 3.00 in that span. He was also solid (if not spectacular) in the Wild Card round against Baltimore, allowing one run on five hits and a walk over 4.1 innings with six Ks.

His numbers against the Yankee hitters are encouraging: in 96 ABs, he’s held them to a .229 average and .631 OPS with just two long balls (Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton).

The Yankees managed just two runs on seven hits on Monday and as the series shifts to pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium for Game 3, I expect their offensive playoff woes – which date back to the 2022 ALCS against Houston – to continue.

NYY vs KC Game 3 Starters: Schmidt vs Lugo

Best Yankees vs Royals Game 3 Odds

Wednesday’s MLB odds have the Yankees vs Royals moneyline extremely tight, no matter which sportsbook you look at. Most have the line at -115/-105 on New York’s favor, but FanDuel favors the Yankees a little more heavily and, thus, has the best price on a Royals victory at -102.

On the runline, FanDuel actually has the best price on New York -1.5 at +146. The best odds on Kansas City -1.5 are -170 at both Caesars Sportsbook and bet365.

Every book save one has the total listed at 8.0 with -110 odds both ways. The only exception is ESPN Bet, which refuses to list MLB total with whole numbers. ESPN Bet currently has the total at 7.5 but with the under in plus money (O -125/U +105).

The MLB public betting splits for Wednesday show the public hammering the Yankees moneyline, with 79% of moneyline handle on the Pinstripes as of 11:15 am ET.