Clemson vs Florida State Prediction, Pick & Betting Line (Oct. 5)

• We’ve made our Clemson vs Florida State prediction for Saturday
• The Week 6 college football odds favor the Tigers by over two scores
• Read below for Clemson vs Florida State prediction, picks and betting line

We’ve got a Saturday ACC showdown as the No. 15 Clemson Tigers roll into Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles on October 5, 2024. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EDT at the iconic Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium. You can catch all the action on ESPN.

The oddsmakers originally made Clemson a hefty 13.5-point favorite, with the over/under currently sitting at 46.5 points. However, the line has shifted even more towards Clemson leading up to kickoff.

While the Tigers have owned this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last ten meetings, don’t count out the Seminoles just yet. They pulled off the upset one season ago and will be looking to defend their home turf behind a new quarterback.

Clemson vs Florida State Prediction

Clemson’s offense has been clicking this season, particularly over their last three games where they’ve averaged an impressive 55 points per contest.

The Tigers come into this game riding a three-game winning streak in which they’ve outscored opponents by a 32-point margin. It isn’t hard to see why oddsmakers now project them to win by 17 points in the CFB odds.

Over their last three games, Clemson has averaged 55 points, with QB Cade Klubnik totaling 16 TD to 1 turnover.

Dabo Swinney on Klubnik's improvement: "The majority of credit belongs to him and the work he put in in the offseason … the game has slowed down for him." pic.twitter.com/J07DHUruC5

— Marc Whiteman (@MarcWYFFNews4) October 1, 2024

Florida State, on the other hand, has had a tough start to the season, posting a 1-4 record. Their offense has struggled, averaging just 15 points per game. To compound their issues, starting QB DJ Uiagalelei is expected to miss the game with a broken finger. As a result, sophomore Brock Glenn will lead the offense.

But here’s where things get interesting. Florida State’s defense has been sneaky good at home, allowing just 19 points per game at Doak Campbell Stadium. And while Clemson’s offense has been putting up crazy numbers, a closer look reveals that their recent opponents (Stanford, NC State, and App State) have questionable defenses at best.

Predict Brock Glenn’s Stats vs Clemson⬇️ pic.twitter.com/u1nsS9LQAn

— Clay Fink (@clay_fink) October 4, 2024

When you dig into the trends, it’s hard not to like FSU and the under in this spot. The Seminoles have covered the spread in four of their last five home games played in October, and the under has hit in four of their last five home games overall.

Meanwhile, Clemson has a tendency to start slow offensively, failing to score a single point in the first quarter of any game this season. In the 2023 meeting, the Noles’ defense held the Tigers to just a field goal in the opening quarter.

Add it all up, and I’m rolling with Florida State +17 and the under 46.5 points. The Seminoles’ elite defense should keeps this game closer than the odds imply, and I predict the under cashes as both teams struggle to find their footing early.

Picks:

• Florida State +17 (-115)
• Under 46.5 Points (-110)

Clemson vs Florida State Line

The oddsmakers have clearly taken notice of Clemson’s high-octane offense, installing the Tigers as a massive 17-point road favorite. This line has ticked up significantly from it’s opening number of Clemson -13.5.

The moneyline odds are even more lopsided, with Clemson sitting at -800 (implied probability of 87.0%) and Florida State at +550 (implied probability of 17.5%).

But as any seasoned bettor knows, the underdog is always live in college football. And when you consider that Florida State has covered the spread in four of their last five home games played in October, suddenly that +17 looks a lot more appealing.

It’s also worth noting that the over/under has come down a full point from the opening line of 47.5. This suggests that sharp bettors are leaning towards a lower-scoring game, which makes sense given Florida State’s solid defensive play at home and Clemson’s tendency to start slow on offense.

Clemson vs FSU Head to Head History

Clemson has had Florida State’s number in recent years, winning seven of the last ten meetings straight up. Here’s a look at how the last five matchups have shaken out:

As you can see, Clemson has been favored in each of the last five meetings, often by double-digit margins. But Florida State did manage to pull off a stunner last season, winning 31-24 in overtime as a 1-point road underdog.

Can the Seminoles capture that magic again on Saturday night? The odds may be stacked against them, but anything can happen when these two ACC rivals square off.