Padres vs Dodgers Picks, Predictions & Odds
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Los Angeles is a -135 moneyline favorite in the Padres vs Dodgers odds for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday
- Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego, while LA counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA)
- Keep reading for the Padres vs Dodgers picks, predictions and odds for Game 1
For the third time in five years, NL West rivals San Diego and Los Angeles will meet in the Division Series. Game 1 goes Saturday in LA, and online sportsbooks have sided with the home team in the latest MLB odds.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 Odds
| Teams | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +1.5 (-192) | +114 | O 7.5 (-115) |
| LA Dodgers | -1.5 (+160) | -135 | U 7.5 (-105) |
The Dodgers are currently a -135 favorite, in a contest with a total of 7.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 pm ET at Dodger Stadium, in Los Angeles, CA, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.
Odds as of Oct. 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to wager on the 2024 MLB playoffs.Â
Padres vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
The Padres will give the ball to Dylan Cease, who’ll make just second career playoff start. Cease wasn’t needed in the Wild Card Round, as San Diego started Michael King and Joe Musgrove in the two-game sweep.
The San Diego righty last pitched a week and a half ago, coincidentally against this same Dodgers lineup. He coughed up five hits and three runs over 5 innings, earning a no-decision in a 4-3 defeat.
Cease was a mixed bag over the final two months of the season, alternating good starts with poor outings. He allowed three runs or more in seven of his final 10 appearances, and will be hard pressed to silence one of the best lineups in baseball.
Dylan Cease vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
| 14-11 | Record | 7-2 |
| 3.47 | ERA | 3.00 |
| 3.32 | xERA | 3.44 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 28.4% | K% | 28.5% |
The Dodgers meanwhile, will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, not Jack Flaherty as originally planned. Yamamoto hasn’t started on less than six days rest all season, and starting him in Game 1 would afford him an extra day’s rest should the series need a fifth game.
Like most LA starters, Yamamoto has dealt with an injury this season. The Dodgers are likely without two of their starting five for the NLDS, and Yamamoto is still getting comfortable after missing nearly three months with a shoulder injury.
He’s pitched into the fifth inning just once since June, and didn’t fare well versus the Padres in their lone meeting this season. San Diego tagged him for eight hits and eight runs in that outing, including two homers.
Expect Plenty of Offense
High scoring games were common among these NL West rivals this season. Six of their contests produced at least nine runs, with the Padres holding an 8-5 series advantage.
The Dodgers lineup gets all the headlines, but San Diego’s roster is formidable as well. Manny Machado averaged nearly an RBI per game over the second half of the season, while Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are all bonafide stars.
As for LA, the main reason their World Series odds are so short, is due to the play of Shohei Ohtani. The four-time MVP will make his postseason debut, after becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50+ bases.
Shohei Ohtani finished the 2024 regular season in the top 5 in MLB in runs (1st), hits (4th), home runs (2nd), RBI (2nd), walks (4th) & stolen bases (2nd).
No one else has ever finished a season in the top 5 in MLB in all of those categories (since RBI became official in 1920). pic.twitter.com/lTvhGfzKpJ
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) October 4, 2024
Ohtani finished the season on an absolute tear. He homered 10 times over the final month, driving in 32 runs and stealing 16 bases. He slashed .509/.556/.982 during the back half of September, and finished with an NL high 9.1 WAR. Of course, the Dodgers lineup also boasts 33-home run man Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts, and it looks like Freddie Freeman will be available for Game 1.
The 35-year-old has been bothered by an ankle injury, but is expected to play on Saturday.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
With so much offensive talent on both sides, this game and series will come down to pitching. That just happens to be where San Diego has the biggest advantage.
The Dodgers starting pitching is riddled with injuries, and their relievers are not on the same level as the Padres. San Diego’s bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. They own the highest strikeout-to-walk percentage, as well as the lowest FIP and SIERA.
Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Odds
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +115 |
| LA Dodgers | -135 |
They held the Braves bats to seven hits over 8+ relief innings in the Wild Card Round, striking out seven against only one walk. They’re likely to be called upon early in Game 1, and bettors should have confidence they’ll perform as expected.
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (+115) at DraftKings
- Over 7.5 Runs (-115) at DraftKings
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
