Mets vs Phillies Game 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Oct. 5)

• Philadelphia is a -185 moneyline favorite in the Mets vs Phillies odds for Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday, October 5
• Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA) will take the ball for Philadelphia, while New York is expected to counter with Tylor Megill (4-5, 4.04 ERA)
• Check out the Mets vs Phillies odds, picks and predictions for Game 1, below

Are the New York Mets a team of destiny, or is the clock set to strike midnight on this Cinderella story? That’s the question online sportsbooks are trying to figure out ahead of Game 1 of the NLDS between the Mets and Phillies.

New York waited until the 11th hour just to secure a playoff berth, and then stole a spot in the Divisional Series by upsetting Milwaukee. They’re flying high at the moment, but that’s expected to come crashing to a halt according to Saturday’s MLB odds.

Mets vs Phillies Game 1 Odds

The Phillies are currently -185 moneyline favorites in Game 1, in a contest with a total of 7.5. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 pm ET at Citizens Bank Park, in Philadelphia, PA, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage.

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Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers

Philly’s status as hefty Game 1 favorites is no surprise given the talent on their roster and the pitching matchup. The Phillies boast significantly shorter World Series odds, and will deploy ace Zack Wheeler in Saturday’s opener.

Wheeler hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any start since July, and has an 85-to-12 strikeout-to-walk rate over his past 11 outings. One of those starts came against the Mets two weeks ago, and Wheeler was brilliant.

The top-two NL Cy Young odds contender yielded just two runs, while striking out eight over 7 innings. He owns a lifetime 2.42 postseason ERA in 10 career starts, and was 3-0, with a 1.95 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in four playoff appearances last year.

Tylor Megill vs Zack Wheeler

New York meanwhile, burned its top three starters in the Wild Card Round and has a decision to make. They’ve yet to announce a Game 1 starter, but beat writers are convinced it will be Tylor Megill. The 29-year-old was left off the Wild Card roster, after eating 6 innings during Monday’s regular season finale.

In a perfect world, Megill would be used in long relief, but it looks like he’ll be forced into his first career playoff start. He’s coming off his best statistical season, limiting opponents to a .688 OPS, but he’ll have his hands full with the mighty Phillies lineup.

Philadelphia Full of Stars

There’s no weakness in the Philly batting order. They’ve got stars up and down the lineup, all with a vast amount of playoff experience. There’s also a sense of urgency surrounding this team. After losing in the NLCS and World Series in consecutive seasons, the Phillies championship window isn’t as big as it once was.

Bryce Harper leads the charge, and has been a nightmare for opponent pitchers in the playoffs. Over the past two postseasons, he leads all players in hits, runs, home runs and OPS. He clubbed 30 dingers again in 2024, and is one of six Philadelphia regulars with a WAR of 3.0 or higher.

Bryce Harper’s Career Postseason Stats:

49 G | 181 AB | 50 H | 11 2B | 16 HR | 31 RBI | 30 BB | 48 K | .276/.383/.613pic.twitter.com/iuOGsgFQiQ

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) October 3, 2024

The Phillies were a top-five offense throughout the regular season, besting New York in virtually every category except home runs.

Speaking of the long ball, Pete Alonso’s go-ahead three-run shot in the 9th of Thursday’s Wild Card clinching win was only his second hit of the series. New York relied heavily on home runs during the regular season, and when the ball isn’t flying out of the yard, they have difficulty generating runs.

They hit just .204 versus the Brewers last round. No player produced more than three hits, and just two of them reached that number. They mustered only four extra-base hits in the series, and their NLDS run won’t last long unless the offense comes alive.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

The pitching matchup and the offensive firepower are both in Philly’s favor, as is the quality of bullpens. New York’s relievers allowed five runs, eight hits and two home runs in 9 innings of work versus the Brewers, and will likely be called upon early in Game 1.

Mets vs Phillies NLDS Odds

Megill hasn’t exceeded 6 innings in any start this season. He lasted 5 innings or less in eight of 15 starts, including his lone appearance versus Philadelphia.

The Phillies outscored the Mets by 10 runs during their season series, and with their ace on the hill we should expect them to beat by New York by at least two runs for sixth time in 2024.

• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+115) at ESPN Bet