NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 5: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

• The simplest way to bet the NFL is the moneyline, as you’re just picking which team will win the game
• My SBD formula and I are offering NFL moneyline picks for the underdogs we like to win outright in Week 5
• See our Week 5 NFL picks below

The 2024-25 NFL season continues to be the year of the underdog, as favorites are only 38-27 straight up through the first four weeks (plus TNF of Week 5). Betting the right underdogs on the NFL moneyline would have your bankroll in a great spot!

I went 1-1 on my two upset picks last week, winning 0.26 units. I have now won money three of four weeks with my NFL moneyline picks. My score predicting formula had a rough week, going 1-4 on its picks last week, losing 2.74 units. It is still up money for the year, though, being +0.36 units after missing on the Bucs to start Week 5.

The list of upsets for Week 5 is the smallest yet, but I feel good about the NFL moneyline picks below!

Week 5 NFL Moneyline Picks

As was the case last week, I do not have any underdogs I am betting on the NFL moneyline that my formula does not also like. I’m actually only playing one underdog this week, while my SBD formula has three upsets it is predicting.

If you were looking for moneyline picks for all 13 games this Sunday & Monday, I have technically provided them! My SBD formula has favorites winning in every game except the three listed above as its upset picks. Though, I will disclose, it does not have New England winning by much (1.7 points, to be exact).

If you’re after my opinion, I would avoid betting the following favorites (on top of the ones I listed above as my upset picks): Houston and Chicago. I’m not sure which Bills team will show up in Week 5, and I don’t really trust the Bears offense to do much right now. I do really like New England to beat the Dolphins, though, and would bet them if the line were to move in Miami’s favor ahead of kickoff.

All of the NFL moneyline odds listed above were the best at the time of writing this article. In order to ensure you get the best price possible when reading this, check out our NFL odds page that does the line shopping for you.

While I won’t get into discussing why my formula likes these underdogs on the moneyline, since it’s baked into the formula and I don’t plan on revealing its specifics to anyone (I have to stay relevant!!), I will gladly share some commentary on my lone NFL upset pick for Week 5 below.

Colts Over Jaguars

To be frank, I do not care who starts at QB for the Colts in this game. I think they win regardless. The one thing I don’t love is no Jonathan Taylor, but we assumed that heading into this week anyways. It’s also likely why the Colts are getting a full three points.

If we see Anthony Richardson suit up, which doesn’t sound very likely at the time of writing this, I think Indianapolis leans on the ground game and wins a nail-biter over the Jaguars. If Joe Flacco is forced under center, I think he carves up the Jags’ 31st-ranked pass defense and Indianapolis wins by two scores.

This is a Jacksonville team that simply does not look sharp right now, and their coach refuses to really lean into the one thing they do well: run the ball. The Jaguars rank second in the NFL in YPC with an average of 5.7 yards per rush, but they have run the ball the fifth-fewest times in the league. They have the third-worst third down conversion percentage (25%), and their defense struggles to get off the field on third downs, allowing opponents to convert 42.6% of their third downs (24th).

I do think it will get better for Jacksonville as the year goes on, but I can’t pass up an opportunity to get plus-money on them losing right now. This pick is more about fading the Jaguars than it is backing the Colts.

• Pick: Colts moneyline (+143 at Caesars)

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