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NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4
By Zach Reger in NFL Football
Updated: September 28, 2024 at 10:23 am EDTPublished:
- I have locked in my best ATS picks for NFL Week 4
- Through three weeks, my NFL ATS record is 3-6
- Keep reading to see my Week 4 NFL picks against the spread
Three straight weeks of going 1-2 in my best NFL picks against the spread has brought me to a 3-6 record. This week is as good as any for a turnaround.
NFL underdogs have continued to feast through three weeks. After the Giants (+5.5) covered the spread on Thursday Night Football vs the Cowboys, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are now 15-2 against the spread this season. Underdogs of 7 points or more are 4-0 straight up to start the season as well. One of the teams I am targeting in Week 4 is a 7-point underdog.
See all three teams I am backing in NFL Week 4.
Saints vs Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +2.5 (+110) | +115 | Over 42.5 (−105) |
| Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 (−110) | -135 | Under 42.5 (−115) |
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NFL ATS Picks #1: Falcons -2.5 (vs. Saints)
The Falcons are listed as 2.5-point home favorites vs their divisional rival on Sunday. The NFL Week 4 opening line for this game was Falcons -1.5 before being bet up to -2.5.
New Orleans came back down to earth last week vs the Eagles and scored just 12 points after putting up 91 in the first two weeks. It was a close game vs the Eagles, but Philadelphia outplayed them in every phase of the game and if it weren’t for some questionable coaching decisions, the Eagles would have won by a lot more.
Derrick Carr is 0-2 against the spread and straight up when playing in Atlanta and is just 23-35-2 against the spread on the road since 2017. He is the least profitable road quarterback ATS in that span.
Now they face the Falcons’ defense which has been strong to start the season. Atlanta is eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed and has forced two interceptions. They are allowing under 21 points per game and in Week 1 vs the Steelers, the Falcons did not allow a touchdown.
Atlanta’s offense has looked better each week as Kirk Cousins continues to heal from his Achilles injury and learn the new offense. This offense will only continue to improve with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts as playmakers. The Falcons have looked a lot better than their 1-2 record and should be able to beat the Saints by at least a field goal at home on Sunday.
- Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Steelers vs Colts Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 40.5 (+100) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1.5 (−110) | +105 | Under 40.5 (−120) |
NFL ATS Picks #2: Steelers -1.5 (vs. Colts)
The NFL odds have the Steelers as a slight, road favorite vs the Colts on Sunday. Surprisingly, the Steelers are one of the 3-0 teams in the NFL this season, and they are also 3-0 against the spread. I like them to win and cover the spread on the road again this weekend.
With a close spread and low O/U, this game has a chance to get ugly which benefits Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Going back to the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh is 11-2 in one-score games. The Steelers’ defense is allowing under 9 points per game and the Colts have struggled on offense. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has made some big plays, but for the most part, has been lackluster and inefficient. He is completing just 43.9% of his passes through three weeks.
We’re just getting started 🤫 pic.twitter.com/2y3cWvH2sJ
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 24, 2024
Tomlin is known to be great vs rookie quarterbacks, and while Richardson is not a rookie, he is making just his eighth career start on Sunday. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 42-14 straight up vs quarterbacks who have yet to start in ten games. Even on the road, the Steelers’ defense should take over this game and get the win.
- Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs Chargers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -7 (-120) | -380 | Over 39.5 (−115) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +7 (+100) | +300 | Under 39.5 (−105) |
NFL ATS Picks #3: Chargers +7 (vs. Chiefs)
The Chiefs are 3-0 this year, but every one of their games has come down to the wire. They have not looked as dominant as they have in years past to start the season.
Patrick Mahomes has been great against the AFC West in his career, but that has not always translated to against the spread success. He is 8-2 straight up vs the Chargers but is just 4-5-1 against the spread. On the road vs his division, he is 16-1 straight up and 10-7 against the spread. Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 59% against the spread over the last 20 years and are 2-0 ATS this season.
This is a completely different Chargers team under Jim Harbaugh, and I expect this to be a close game at home. I like getting 7 points with Harbaugh and his defense. With a low total of 39.5, I especially like getting a touchdown as not many points are expected to be scored. The Chargers want to run the ball, and outside of Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ offense has not looked explosive through three weeks.
With the Giants (+5.5) covering the spread, NFL underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 15-2 ATS 😳
Underdogs of 7 points or more are 4-0 straight up this season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/LnjnhAQinO
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 27, 2024
As mentioned earlier, underdogs of 7 points or more are 4-0 straight up this year. While I am not brave enough to say the Chargers will win outright, they have the talent and coaching to keep this game within a touchdown.
- Pick: Chargers +7 (+100)
Reger’s 2024 NFL ATS Record: 3-6 (-3.27 units)
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Zach Reger
Social Media Manager; Sports Betting Personality & Handicapper
Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
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