Jaguars vs Bills Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Monday Night Football (Week 3)

• The Jacksonville Jaguars battle the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football
• Jacksonville has gone 2-6 ATS in its last eight games
• Check out all the Jaguars vs Bills odds, predictions, and picks, below

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Buffalo aiming to turn their season around against the Bills in Week 3 NFL action. Jacksonville is 0-2 after throwing away their contest against Miami in Week 1 and falling short against the Browns last week.

Explore the latest Jaguars vs Bills odds and our best bets for this Week 3 NFL Monday Night Football extravaganza below.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Odds

The Bills entered Week 3 as 4.5-point home favorites, but that line has moved up a full point to 5.5 in the latest NFL odds. The Jaguars vs Bills total currently sits at 45.5, which is down 1.5 points from the opening Week 3 odds.

Odds updated on Sept. 22 from FanDuel Sportsbook. Explore the best betting apps for Week 3 of the NFL season. 

Even with the line up to 5.5, the public still likes the Bills against the spread. The latest NFL public betting splits show 59% of ATS handle on Buffalo along with 78% of moneyline handle.

Jacksonville in Dire Straits

Jacksonville’s putrid offense has been the main catalyst behind their 0-2 start.

The Jags have scored just 15 points per game while generating a below average 295 total yards per contest. Most concerningly, Jacksonville’s offensive line hasn’t given Trevor Lawrence much of a shot. Their line ranks 24th and 22nd, respectively, in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate and run-blocking win rate, which explains why the Jags rank 28th in rushing EPA.

Trevor Lawrence last 7 starts

0-7
1,652 Pass Yards
10 Pass TD
7 NT
81.9 Pass Rating pic.twitter.com/mQIQCymMzm

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 16, 2024

Jacksonville’s defense hasn’t been much better. They’ve allowed over 348 total yards per game, including 245.5 passing yards, good for 30th in the NFL. On top of that, the Jaguars defense ranks 30th in pass-rush win rate, indicating they’ll have a tough time generating enough pressure on Josh Allen to disrupt the Bills passing game.

Be sure to note, the Jags are just 1-7 SU in their last eight games. Additionally, the total has gone under in five of Jacksonville’s last six games.

Bills Look Like Super Bowl Contenders

Despite the off-season loss of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills offense hasn’t missed a beat in 2024. Buffalo ranks second in EPA/play (0.219) and lead the NFL in both offensive success rate (52%) and drop back EPA (0.534). On top of that, the Bills sit second in team yards per point at just 9.2, meaning they’re converting at an elite level in the red zone.

All-world quarterback Josh Allen has looked superhuman this season. He’s racked up 371 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing 73.8% of his passes. The Wyoming product ranks near the top of the NFL MVP odds for good reason.

Buffalo’s offensive line has dominated, sitting first in pass-block win rate and giving #17 the time he needs to find the holes in defenses. Allen is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s most unstoppable forces, and will have an answer for anything Jacksonville’s defense throws at him on Sunday.

Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/cZXGKO5mGJ

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) September 11, 2024

On the defensive side, Sean McDermott’s defense sits sixth in EPA/play (-0.136). They’re ranked sixth in both opponent yards and points per play (4.6 and 0.281), and have allowed an elite 179 passing yards per game. The Bills defensive line of Greg Rousseau, Von Miller and Ed Oliver have harried and harassed opponents into mistakes, while notching six sacks already.

Keep in mind, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their last six games at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Predictions & Picks

Trevor Lawrence has completed just 50% of his passes this year. If the Jaguars issues on the offensive and defensive lines continue, the juggernaut Bills will make mincemeat of them on Monday Night.

Back the Bills to win by at least a score in Week 3.

• Jaguars vs Bills Pick: Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-115)