NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• The Week 3 NFL odds are out and there are two home underdogs that I love
• The 2-0 Saints and their NFL-best +62 point differential are 2.5-point home ‘dogs to the Eagles
• See my favorite NFL Week 3 ATS picks and early lines to target

Save for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and Eagles, Week 2 is in the books. The opening NFL Week 3 odds are out for all 16 games and I immediately see a couple of home underdogs who should be favored.

The table below lists my three favorite NFL Week 3 ATS picks to target early before the lines move.

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

All three of my Week 3 ATS picks are underdogs. The first two games – Eagles vs Saints, and Texans vs Vikings – are in the 1:00 pm ET timeslot on Sunday, Sep. 22. The third – Commanders vs Bengals – is the latter kickoff in a Monday Night Football doubleheader on Sep. 23. Jaguars vs Bills is the early kickoff in said doubleheader at 7:30 pm ET.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 7-5 (+1.84 units)

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Odds as of Sep. 16. Download the top football betting apps ahead of NFL Week 3. 

Check out SBD’s NFL odds page during the week to see the up-to-date lines, and our NFL public betting percentages page to see which way the public is betting the Week 3 games.

Week 3 ATS Pick #1: Saints -2.5 (+126) Over Eagles

It’s early days yet but there’s no disputing that the New Orleans Saints (2-0, 1-0 home, 2-0 ATS) have been the most-impressive team so far in the 2024 season. The Saints demolished Carolina 47-10 at home in Week 1. Many chalked that up to subpar competition – Carolina’s win total has already dropped to just 3.5 – but New Orleans backed up their Week 1 victory with a stunning 44-19 road win at Dallas as 6.5-point underdogs.

Alvin Kamara turned back the clock with a 180 total yards and four touchdowns as the Saints absolutely shredded the Cowboys defense for five first-half majors.

There goes Alvin Kamara for 57 yards!

📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/F0NOkTSZ7g

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

The only time we’ve seen the Eagles (1-0, 0-0 away, 1-0 ATS) this season, they outgunned Green Bay 34-29 down in Brazil in Week 1. But remember, this is the same team that finished last year with six setbacks in its final seven games including the postseason. The defense doesn’t look any better than the porous unit we saw at the end of 2023, allowing 414 total yards to the Packers.

New Orleans’ defense, which was already an above-average unit last year, has clearly taken big steps forward, and I expect the Saints’ surprisingly dynamic offense to keep rolling in Week 3.

Philly is favored by as many as 2.5 points in the early Saints vs Eagles odds. I’m not just taking the Saints to cover that spread; I’m targeting an alt-line of New Orleans -2.5, which comes with a tidy +126 price tag.

Week 3 ATS Pick #2: Vikings +3.5 (-156) Over Texans

Minnesota caught a break in Week 2, getting to face the 49ers sans Christian McCaffrey. But you still have to give the Vikings (2-0, 1-0 home, 2-0 ATS) credit for their 23-17 win over the reigning NFC champions. Led by 133 receiving yards from Justin Jefferson, the Vikes put up over 400 yards of offense on San Francisco’s vaunted defense. (The Niners held Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to just 266 total yards in a 32-19 win in Week 1.)

Sam Darnold looks unrecognizable under center for the Vikings. He had 208 yards and two TDS on 79.2% passing against the Giants in an easy 28-6 Week 1 victory, and then posted 268 yards and another two TDs against San Francisco in Week 2.

Houston (2-0, 1-0 away, 0-2 ATS) has gotten the job done in the win column, but they have yet to cover the spread in 2024. Prized offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs has just 70 total receiving yards through two games. US Bank Stadium is a tough place to come into, notwithstanding Minnesota’s 2-6 record at home last year. The line on this game at FanDuel is Texans -2.5. I am buying Minnesota an extra point to get the spread over a field goal at -156 odds.

Week 3 ATS Pick #3: Commanders +8.5 (-110) Over Bengals

The 2024 Bengals (0-2, 0-1 home, 1-1 ATS) just don’t the defense to be laying this many points, unless they’re playing the Panthers. After a miserable Week 1 performance against New England (16-10 loss as 8.5-point favorites), Joe Burrow and company put in a much better showing in Week 2, falling 26-25 at Kansas City on a last-second field goal as 6.5-point road underdogs.

But the common theme coming out of Cincy’s first two games is that they cannot stop the run. The Chiefs put up 137 rushing yards at 5.1 yards per carry, while the Pats shredded the Bengal front seven for 170 yards at 4.4 YPC. That plays exactly into what Washington wants to do with fleet-footed rookie Jayden Daniels under center. The Commanders racked up 235 rushing yards in their 21-18 victory over the Giants yesterday. They also had 138 on 4.4 YPC in their 37-20 Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay.

In hostile territory, the young Commanders will employ another run-heavy game plan that churns as much clock as possible. I do believe Cincinnati will notch its first victory of the season but I don’t expect a blowout. The early NFL public betting splits agree: Washington is getting 57% of ATS handle while the under (47.5) is getting 78%.