Week 1 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• See our Week 1 college football picks against the spread for Saturday (Aug. 31)
• Notre Dame and Miami (FL) are among my favorite CFB ATS picks this weekend
• Read below for the best Week1 college football picks against the spread

After getting a taste of the action during Week 0, the 2024 college football season serves up its first full course with a loaded Week 1 schedule on Saturday, August 31st. We’ve compiled our top three CFB picks against the spread to help you start the season off right.

Among our best Week 1 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as they travel to face Texas A&M. We’re also targeting an in-state rivalry matchup between Miami (FL) and Florida that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons.

Let’s dive into our expert college football picks against the spread for Week 1 (Saturday, August 31st).

Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Odds

All odds as of August 30th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the top sports betting apps for college football against the spread betting.

ATS Picks #1: Notre Dame +3 (vs Texas A&M)

My Week 1 college football picks against the spread begin with a play on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their matchup with the Texas A&M Aggies. I like the Irish to cover on the road based on their experience and talent on both sides of the ball.

Notre Dame’s offense is poised for a big year behind experienced quarterback Riley Leonard, a dual-threat transfer from Duke. While Texas A&M has a talented young pivot in Conner Weigman, he has battled injuries and missed time in 2023. The Aggies offensive line has also had issues with pass protection.

“A year ago, who would have thought we’d be in this situation.”

Riley Leonard discusses facing his old Duke coach Mike Elko who is now at Texas A&M in the 1st game for both at their new schools.

Elko says Leonard has the advantage. Irish OC Mike Denbrock sees it differently. pic.twitter.com/1WzzzvR2qR

— Angelo Di Carlo (@angdicarlo) August 28, 2024

Weigman faces a Notre Dame defense that allowed just 15.9 points per game in 2023. The Irish secondary is loaded with NFL-caliber talent like cornerback Benjamin Morrison. Notre Dame’s defensive front, led by tackle Howard Cross, should exploit a suspect Aggies O-line and make life difficult for Weigman.

New Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko is very familiar with Notre Dame from his time as defensive coordinator there. However, Irish head coach Marcus Freeman and his staff also know Elko’s tendencies well. I think Elko’s potential schematic advantage will be neutralized in this chess match.

The key ATS trend to know here is that head coach Marcus Freeman is 30-12 (71.4%) ATS in non-conference games since becoming a head coach in 2014. Look for ND to feed into the underdog mentally and secure the upset in College Station.

• Pick: Notre Dame +3 (-112)

Ohio State vs Akron Odds

ATS Picks #2: Akron +49 (vs Ohio State)

My favorite play of college football week 1 was Akron to over 50.5 against Ohio State on Saturday. While this spread has come down to -49, there’s still some value left on this bet. While OSU is clearly the better team, I’m not expecting them to run this score up completely.

The Buckeyes are just 5-8-1 ATS in non-conference games since 2020, including failing to cover as 44.5-point favorites against Arkansas State in the early goings of last season. They did, however, win by 52 points against Akron two seasons ago, although they only threw the ball for 385 yards.

The Zips allowed just a 56% completion percentage last year, fourth best among non-power conference teams. If Akron can generate some pressure on Ohio State’s new starting quarterback, Will Howard, and force errant throws, it may slow down the Buckeyes’ offensive onslaught.

It’s clear where the sharp money is on the game, with the line shifting a full two points towards the underdog. Most casual bettors are rushing to bet on the big favorites like Ohio State in Week 1. Ryan Day has a strong relationship with Zips coach Joe Moorhead, and I think he shows him a bit of respect Saturday.

• Pick: Akron +49 (-110)

Miami vs Florida Odds

ATS Picks #3: Miami FL -2.5 (vs Florida)

I’m wrapping up my Week 1 college football picks against the spread with a pick for Miami to cover the -3 spread against Florida in an in-state rivalry showdown. I’m big on the Hurricanes this season, particularly due to the arrival of quarterback Cam Ward.

In his two seasons at Washington State, Ward threw for 48 touchdowns and scored another 13 with his legs. He has an elite receiver to throw to in Xavier Restrepo and will be protected by an experienced offensive line.

"The O-Line and D-Line is gonna be the reason why we're going to be able to win a lot of football games this year."@CanesFootball's Cam Ward showing love to his teammates 🙌 pic.twitter.com/9dcQ4nLbaD

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) August 28, 2024

The Hurricanes averaged 39.2 points per game last season and ranked 28th in rushing offense at 185.7 yards per game. That balanced and explosive attack will challenge a suspect Florida defense that repeatedly allowed big plays and forced just three interceptions in 2023.

Some crucial betting trends also point towards Miami, including that Florida has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Miami, meanwhile, is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. Florida and has covered in three straight openers as a favorite.

The Florida defense struggled mightily to contain dual-threat quarterbacks, including allowing LS QB Jayden Daniels to account for 606 total yards last year. I’m forecasting Ward to exploit this Gators’ defense, and I will also be targeting the senior in the college football player props.

• Pick: Miami FL -2.5 (-112)

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