Can deGrom Win the NL Cy Young Without Actually Winning Games?

• Jacob deGrom has leapfrogged over Max Scherzer to achieve the shortest average odds to win the 2018 NL Cy Young Award
• Can the hardluck hurler win enough games to capture the trophy?
• Will Scherzer finish strong and win his third consecutive Cy Young? 

Can you be a winner without being a winner? That’s what Cy Young voters will have to ask themselves when considering the unusual candidacy of Jacob deGrom. The Mets ace is just 8-8 in 26 starts despite leading the National League in ERA, ERA+, and FIP, an all-in-one stat that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at generating strikeouts and preventing home runs, walks, and hit batsmen.

deGrom’s lacklustre record may be an issue for some traditionalists, but it doesn’t seem to be souring Vegas on his chances of winning his first Cy Young. The 30-year-old right-hander currently has the shortest average odds to win the award across a number of top online sportsbooks at -130. That’s the lowest his odds have been all season after beginning at +1400 on March 16th.

NL Cy Young Award Average Odds

In all fairness to deGrom, his pedestrian record isn’t really his fault. Thursday afternoon’s game against the Giants was a perfect microcosm of his season, as the two-time All-Star struck out ten over six strong innings and still picked up the loss. It’s been that kind of year for the hardluck hurler, as deGrom has become the first pitcher in history to have a sub-2.00 ERA in his first 20 starts of the season and win fewer than seven games.

deGrom could make as many as five more starts in 2018, but how many of them will actually result in wins? It’s an important question since no starting pitcher with a .500 record has ever won the Cy Young. In fact, only eight other pictures have earned Cy Young honors in years in which they’ve won 16 or fewer games, and three of them (Fernando Valenzuela, Greg Maddux, and David Cone) did so during strike-shortened seasons.

Cy Young Winners with Fewest Wins

A more fitting comparison to deGrom is Felix Hernandez, who won the AL Cy Young award in 2010 after going 13-12 in 34 starts. The hard-throwing righty edged out David Price 167-111 that year after racking up 232 strikeouts and leading the AL in ERA, innings pitched, batters faced, and hits per nine innings.

Much like the Mets, the Mariners were also awful that season, finishing 61-101 and in fourth place in the AL West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkO5sC-SPik

Baseball is one of the few sports where players on losing teams can still win major awards, but it doesn’t happen often. Here are the winning percentages of the teams that have produced the last five NL Cy Young winners:

It’s no secret that winning teams produce winning pitchers, but some voters may be reluctant to reward a player like deGrom, whose contributions have had minimal impact on his team’s win-loss record. The Mets’ winning percentage, after all, is presently .441 and sinking fast.

Another issue that deGrom will have to overcome is the standout performances of his fellow aces Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. Scherzer, whose average odds are +100, has twice as many victories as deGrom and leads the National League in wins, starts, shutouts, innings pitched, batters faced, strikeouts, and WHIP.

Ol’ Blue Eye got hit hard in back-to-back games in July, but he appears to be rounding back into form. Scherzer looked especially sharp on Thursday against the Phillies as he gave up with just two hits in seven innings and struck out ten.

Top 3 Cy Young Contenders

Nola was also brilliant in that game, scattering just five hits and striking out nine in eight sensational innings. The 25-year-old phenom is undefeated in August and is 3-0 with a 1.58 ERA since the All-Star break.

The Final Verdict: Be Leery of deGrom’s Short Odds

deGrom deserves sympathy because of the Mets’ ineptitude, but he doesn’t deserve the Cy Young. The smart money is still on Scherzer, who has regained his old form and is on pace to finish the season with more wins and strikeouts than any other pitcher in the National League. Those numbers will be impossbile to ignore when it comes time for voters to cast their ballots.