Where Will Erik Karlsson Play in 2018-19? Canucks Enter Trade Talks

• Long the center of trade rumors, Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson may finally be on the move.
• Strangely, the rebuilding Vancouver Canucks have entered the fray.
• Where is the two-time Norris Trophy-winner likely to start the 2018-19 season? Find the odds, below.

When the buzzer sounded after the Ottawa Senators’ last home game in 2018, Erik Karlsson scooped up the puck as a keepsake, a telling sign that he expected that game to be his last at the Canadian Tire Centre.

When he and former teammate Mike Hoffman — or, more accurately, their significant others — started beefing in the offseason, the likelihood of Karlsson leaving grew. When he rejected an eight-year, $80M offer from Ottawa in early July, the writing seemed to be on the wall that his days in Ottawa were at an end.

But two months later, Hoffman has been shipped to San Jose while Karlsson remains a Senator.

Karlsson is a likely trade candidate because Ottawa is entering a rebuild and the two-time Norris Trophy-winner (2012 & 2015) is an impending free agent who’s keen to test the open market. He represents the best trade chip the Senators have and should fetch a decent haul of prospects and draft picks to jump-start the aforementioned rebuild.

Strangely, the latest team to enter the mix for Karlsson is another rebuilding Canadian franchise, the Vancouver Canucks.

There is a sense today that Erik Karlsson trade talks have picked up in the last few days. Most likely destinations appear to be Western Conference. There is also a belief VAN has stepped in to see if it is a match.

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 22, 2018

One thing Vancouver management proved this offseason by signing low-ceiling veterans Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel to four-year contracts is that they have no idea how to properly rebuild. So we can’t rule out the possibility that they do the exact opposite of what they should and trade valuable young assets for a one-season rental.

Odds on Erik Karlsson’s Team to Start 2018-19 NHL Season

Before the Canucks emerged as a potential trade partner, the most-likely landing spots for Karlsson were a quartet of Stanley Cup contenders — Vegas, Dallas, San Jose, and Tampa — which made a lot more sense.

Karlsson is the type of player who can vault an offensively-loaded team like Dallas into the top-tier of the NHL, but not dominant enough to turn a young and eminently flawed Vancouver roster into anything more than a Wild Card hopeful. Realistically, his offensive game isn’t at its peak. After averaging 18.5 goals per season from 2013 to 2017, he notched just nine last year, while also seeing his point total regress to 62, his lowest in a since 2010-11 (save for 2012-13, when he played just 17 games).

Placed in a situation like Vancouver, which would somewhat mirror his surroundings in Ottawa, similar results would likely follow. But, still just 28 years of age, there’s a chance he regains his Norris-winning form if surrounded by better players on a better team.

Additionally, potential trade partners don’t need to worry about the narrative that Karlsson has become a defensive liability. Yes, he recorded a dismal -25 rating last season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as anyone who looks beyond that one superficial stat knows.

Karlsson was able to muster a positive Corsi (51.4%) and Fenwick (50.8%) last season, meaning the Sens were generating more shots than they were giving up while he was on the ice. His plus-minus was so brutal because he was playing against other team’s top lines night in and night out and receiving little help from the rest of the Senators roster.

It wasn’t his best season, by any stretch, but it also wasn’t the complete debacle a -25 rating hints at. Placed in a more favorable situation — i.e. not Vancouver — that number should rebound.

All in all, Karlsson’s level of play should convince one of the four contending teams to part with enough assets to satisfy Ottawa’s asking-price. That said, there’s a reasonably good chance that a deal doesn’t get done before the season starts on October 3rd. It’s nearly September already!