Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Odds, Predictions, Player Props & Injury News

• The Dallas Mavericks have a second chance to close out the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 on Thursday
• After missing Game 4, Dereck Lively has been upgraded to “questionable” for Game 5 tonight
• See the Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves odds, predictions, player props and injury reports on May 30, 2024

Facing elimination for the second straight game, the Minnesota Timberwolves (65-32, 33-15 home, 49-46-2 ATS) host the Dallas Mavericks (61-37, 31-18 away, 57-41 ATS) in Game 5 of the 2024 Western Conference Final on Thursday night at the Target Center in Minneapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:40 pm CT/8:40 pm ET and, despite dropping the first two games of the series at home, the T-Wolves are 4.5 point favorites to win and send the series back to Dallas.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

On the moneyline, the T-wolves are -192 chalk with the Mavericks listed as +160 road underdogs to end the series tonight. After the first under of the series hit in Game 4, the total has come down from 210.5 to 209.5, though that’s still two points higher than any of the first three games of the series, which all saw at least 213 points scored.

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Minnesota’s odds to win the series improved from +1000 to +425 after Tuesday’s Game 4 victory. The Mavericks remain heavy favorites, but have faded from -1800 to -550. The Boston Celtics have already advanced to the 2024 NBA Finales out of the East and are -290 favorites in the NBA Championship odds.

Timberwolves Keep Season Alive

Game 4 was almost a carbon copy of Games 1, 2 and 3, except Minnesota finally managed to hold onto a fourth-quarter lead. After squandering late leads in the first three games of the series, Minnesota’s stars came up clutch in Tuesday’s 105-100 road victory. Anthony Edwards had a team-high 29 points on 11-of-25 shooting with 10 rebounds and nine assists, narrowly missing a triple-double. Karl-Anthony Towns added 25 points on an electric 9-of-13 performance from the field, including 4-of-5 from three.

On the Dallas side, the Mavs stars were dreadfully inefficient. Luka Doncic finished with 28 points but was just 7-of-21 from the floor. Kyrie Irving had just 16 points on 6-of-18 shooting. As a team, Dallas shot 42% from the floor, while the T-wolves hit at 52.7%.

Dallas vs Minnesota Injury Reports for Game 5

After missing Game 4 due to a neck injury, Dallas center Dereck Lively II is listed as questionable for Game 5 on Thursday night. Luka Doncic is once again questionable due to lingering knee and ankle issues, but there is no suggestion he won’t play.

On the Minnesota side, Mike Conley is back on the injury report, listed as questionable with the same Achilles injury that’s been hampering him for over a week. Conley missed Game 5 of the Denver series, but has been in the lineup for the last six games,  playing at least 31 minutes in each game.

DAL vs MIN Game 5 Player Props

DAL vs MIN NBA player props from DraftKings on May 30.

After his 29-point performance on Tuesday night, Edwards’ point total has increased two full points from 26.5 in Game 4 to 28.5 for Game 5. Doncic remains at 30.5. His 28-point performance last time out was the first time this series he didn’t score at least 32 points.

Rudy Gobert remains a sizable favorite to go over 10.5 rebounds (-142o/+120u). The Minnesota center hasn’t collected more than 10 rebounds in his last five games and is averaging just 8.3 RPG against the Mavericks.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions for Game 5

Dallas missed a huge opportunity to put Minnesota to bed at home on Tuesday. The Timberwolves have looked like the better team for most of the series, with the Mavericks’ clutch fourth-quarter play proving the difference in the first three games. Doncic’s minutes aren’t suffering while he battles his knee and ankle issues, but his movement on the court is noticeably different.

I expect this series to go at least six games and I actually like the value on Minnesota to win the series at +425, which carries just a 19.05% implied win probability. (If Dallas has a 65% chance to win its home games and a 50/50 chance on the road, that equates to a 21.2% true win probability.) It’s true that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA, but that used to be true in the NHL and MLB, as well. It’s not anymore.

I bet Gobert to go over his rebound total last time out when Lively, Dallas’ leading rebounder in the postseason, was sidelined. I am going to reverse course in Game 5 and take the under on Gobert’s rebound total of 10.5, a number he hasn’t hit since Game 6 against the Nuggets.

DAL vs MIN Game 5 picks:

• Timberwolves moneyline (-192)
• Timberwolves to win the series (+425)
• Gobert under 10.5 rebounds (+120)