Could Odds-On Cy Young Favorite Max Scherzer Also Win NL MVP?

According to the odds at online sportsbooks, Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer has a chance to do something historic this year: a heavy favorite to win the NL Cy Young, Scherzer is also among the frontrunners to win NL MVP.

The tables below show the odds for both awards at roughly the midpoint of the 2018 season.

2018 NL CY YOUNG FAVORITES (JULY 5)

2018 NL MVP FAVORITES (JULY 5)

If he manages to win the MVP and Cy Young, he would become just the fourth National Leaguer in history to earn both awards in the same season, and only the second in the last 50 years. (Strangely enough, he would also become just the second non-Dodger to do it.)

*In 1958, the AL and NL awarded separate MVPs but the MLB only gave out one Cy Young award for both leagues.

Is there any chance the two-time reigning NL Cy Young champ pulls off the rare feat? Let’s look at the two parts in isolation, starting with the easier sell.

Max Scherzer’s 2018 NL Cy Young Case

You don’t wind up a -600 Cy Young favorite halfway through the year without reason. Scherzer has been the best pitcher in the NL on the whole, as is evident when his numbers are juxtaposed against the other contenders.

The probability that comes along with Scherzer’s -600 odds (85.7%) is too high based on (a) how good deGrom has been and (b) the fact that W/L records matter less and less to voters each year.

[G]iven Scherzer’s durability and the potential for deGrom to get hurt or be traded to the [AL], Scherzer deserves to be a sizeable favorite.

But given Scherzer’s durability and the potential for deGrom to get hurt or be traded to the American League, Scherzer deserves to be a sizeable favorite; Lester’s numbers aren’t nearly on par (he’s only 11-2 because of an MLB-best 6.41 runs of support), and the young Aaron Nola has yet to prove he can sustain this pace over a full season.

Max Scherzer’s 2018 NL MVP Case

This is where Mad Max runs into huge problems.

As mentioned, only four NL pitchers have ever won MVP/Cy Young double, and Clayton Kershaw in 2014 is the only one in the last 50 years. A pitcher needs to be historically good to beat out position players and, to put it bluntly, the best position players have to kind of suck.

As you can see in the next table, not only did Kershaw have an insanely low ERA and WHIP in 2014, he also had an immaculate W/L record to go along with it. That’s no longer necessary to win the Cy Young, but it may still be a sine qua non for MVP. Jake Arrieta posted similar numbers in 2015, yet only finished 6th in MVP voting, in part because he had twice as many losses.

Additionally, in 2014, no position player in the NL hit more than 37 home runs or had an OPS over .952. By contrast, in 2015, unanimous NL MVP Bryce Harper hit 42 homers and had a 1.109 OPS.

This season, the two NL MVP favorites, Nolan Arenado (.997, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 3.4 WAR) and Freddie Freeman (.929 OPS, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 3.2 WAR), are leaving room for a pitcher to win, but if you go back to the table in the Cy Young section, you’ll see that Scherzer’s numbers aren’t quite at 2014 Kershaw levels.

There’s another massive problem with Kershaw’s MVP bid: Washington is terrible (by Washington standards).

Narrative still plays a huge role in MVP voting. The Nationals were supposed to waltz to another NL East crown. Instead, they’re a game under .500, seven games back of the division-leading Braves, and 5.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot.

That’s not Scherzer’s fault. In his five losses, the Nats have averaged 1.4 runs per game and been shutout three times.

Yet, if Washington is going to make the playoffs, which it likely needs to for Scherzer to win MVP, it will need to either reel in an Atlanta team that shows no signs of slowing down or leapfrog five teams for the Wild Card (currently the Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, and Rockies).

These days, it’s not impossible to win MVP on a non-playoff team; Mike Trout did so in 2016. But he’s the only non-playoff MVP since Albert Pujols (Cardinals) in 2009, and no player in recent history has won MVP in either league while playing for a team that wildly underperformed compared to preseason expectations. On the contrary, when Kershaw won in 2014, the Dodgers went 94-68 (2nd in the NL) and won the West by six games.

Barring a complete reversal, the Nationals — pegged for 92 wins by FanGraphs at the start of the year and currently on pace for 80 — will be one of the biggest underachievers in the league, and that will crush any hopes Scherzer has of winning MVP.