MLS Cup Odds for Miami Shorten to +2000 Following Messi Signing

• After a two-year stint in Paris, Lionel Messi will be heading to Inter Miami for the next stage of his career
• Since the news broke, Inter’s odds to win the 2023 MLS Cup have improved from +17500 to as low as +1800
• Read our analysis on how much Messi can improve this side and if they can win the MLS Cup below

Lionel Messi is heading to Inter Miami in a shocking transfer that has shaken up the 2023 MLS Cup odds. The 35-year-old Argentinean is coming off a Ballon d’Or-worthy season, having finally won the World Cup for his home country.

It is undeniable that he really has nothing left to prove, which is why a move to Miami makes sense, over a return to Barcelona. As he said in his recent press conference, playing in Miami and the MLS lets him enjoy a little bit more of his day-to-day life.

Also, Messi can still get an enormous bag by playing in America. He might have got more money upfront by playing in Saudi Arabia, but an MLS move does offer him a path to long-term wealth and fame under the David Beckham route. While his deal cannot be finalized until the transfer window opens, we do know it is worth between $125 and $150 million.

This unprecedented package offers him equity within the club and profit-sharing with two of the MLS’s biggest partners, Apple TV and Adidas.

MLS Cup Odds 2023 

Messi’s Debut Date

So, when can we expect him to be donning the pink and black? To be honest, it is still completely up in the air. Inter Miami have to first figure out their designated player situation, which is paramount to getting Messi on the roster. For me, the most likely scenario is that the MLS ditches their DP rules, which would allow other stars, like Sergio Busquets, to join the club. A realistic debut date for Messi is July 21st when Inter plays Cruz Azul in the League Cup.

Messi will obviously be a Designated player:

MLS teams have a max 3 DP slots.

Miami has 3 DPs on their roster.

So let’s make som cap space for the 🐐

🧵:

— Andrew Visnovsky (@AndrewVisnovsky) June 8, 2023

MLS odds as of June 10th at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Inter Miami Are Dead Last in the East

Messi’s move to Miami does not move the needle for me in terms of believing Inter have a shot at the MLS Cup. They have lost 12 out of their last 15 in the MLS, being shut out seven times over the same span. Not to mention they just sacked Phil Neville, who served as their manager for two years.

Lionel Messi 2022/23 Stats at PSG

The first five rows of stats in the table are from all club competitions in 2022/23. The last four rows are based on his last 365 days, counting statistics for both club and country.

Bad is an understatement in regard to their current form, and the culture shock of Messi joining the media circus that will bring does not bode well for a cup run, at least this year. Taking a quick look at the roster tells you all you need to know too. Barring Josef Martinez, not many names stand out as potential difference-makers.

For proof this is not a smart bet, look at Zlatan’s time in Los Angeles. The LA Galaxy also finished dead last in the West before his arrival. Despite scoring 52 goals in 56 games, they only finished in seventh and fifth place in the West in his two seasons there. What I am trying to say is that Messi will help significantly, but an immediate MLS Cup run is a bit too speculative.

Do Inter Miami Have a Shot in 2024 MLS Cup Odds?

Nonetheless, a 2024 run is surely interesting. DraftKings currently has their odds in 2024 at +300, which makes them more of a favorite than LAFC this year. I would wait to see if the odds fluctuate a bit once Messi actually starts playing and people see how much of an impact he will have.

Lionel Messi is already having a HUGE impact on Inter Miami:

• 6M new Instagram followers
• 4,500% increase in merch sales
• 3rd best-selling team on Fanatics
• 1,200% jump in ticket prices

And they'll probably bring in 2-3x more revenue this year alone.

That's crazy 🤯 pic.twitter.com/lA63Sg5CbT

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) June 11, 2023

There is a strong chance Miami can recruit more talent too. Rumors have been swirling for both Busquets and Angel di Maria, both former teammates of Messi. If those moves happen, a play on them in 2024 is worth it. Remember, Messi is still playing some of his best football, averaging a goal or assist every ninety minutes.

Regardless, soak in these next couple of seasons; we are all about a witness a goodbye tour that will rival even that of Pele’s.