Holger Rune vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – Italian Open Semifinals

• No. 7 seed Holger Rune is the favorite against the higher-ranked Casper Ruud in the Italian Open semifinals
• It’s a rare all-Scandinavian matchup, but Ruud holds a 4-0 lead in the head-to-head
• Scroll down as we analyze this matchup and make our Rune vs Ruud prediction

In the global sport that is tennis, all-Scandinavian matchups are rare these days. But Holger Rune and Casper Ruud have already met four times; the fifth will be Saturday in the Italian Open semifinals with the Dane favored in the Rune vs Ruud odds.

Rune vs Ruud Odds

At -175 odds, No. 7 seed Rune is the favorite in the Rune vs Ruud semifinal Saturday at the Italian Open. Ruud is the underdog at +145 odds. Rune vs Ruud odds as of May 19 at DraftKings.

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Ruud Gets Sweet Draw to Final Four

Ruud was a somewhat dismissed No. 2 in the world last September. He went 51-22 on the season, and won three titles (all on clay, and all of the smaller ATP 250 variety).

But 2023, so far, has not been up to par even if he did win another 250-level tournament in Estoril, Portugal in April.

He was a pedestrian 11-9 coming into Rome, and just 2-3 on his favored clay after that Estoril title. In Madrid, he lost to Matteo Arnoldi, ranked outside the top 100.

Turn the calendar forward, and he’s had a great 10 days in Rome – helped quite a bit by a very favorable draw.

Ruud has only faced one seed – No. 24 Francisco Cerundolo. He didn’t have to face Jannik Sinner or Karen Khachanov, who were in his section but upset before they got to him. And he escaped (barely) in a third-set tiebreak against the mercurial Alexander Bublik.

All of which to say, the fact that he made it to the final four isn’t necessarily indicative of a massive resurgence in form.

Rune Ousts Djokovic en Route to Semis

For Rune, whose coaching association with guru Patrick Mouratoglou seemingly ended in Miami – and then was resuscitated on the clay as the Netflix crew began following him around, the big win in Rome was a scrappy one against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic lost in the quarter-finals of the Italian Open in three sets to Holger Rune. Afterwards Djokovic said the world No. 7 deserved the win and "played better" than him! #ItalianOpen pic.twitter.com/6bCHdoYTzX

— FirstSportz Tennis (@FS_Tennis1) May 18, 2023

Djokovic has been a bit out of sorts in Rome – dealing with an ongoing elbow issue and other niggles. He’s also, at 36, dealing with the fact that he’s played relatively little tennis and it’s harder at his age to crank up the machine.

But Rune has beaten Djokovic before. He’s legit. In fact, the only top-five player he doesn’t have great results against is … Ruud.

We expect that to change on Saturday in our Rune vs Ruud picks.

Rune vs Ruud Head-to-Head

Last Meeting: 2022 French Open

Back in 2022, Ruud was playing well leading up to Paris. He made the Rome semis, and won the title in Geneva.

And he faced a 19-year-old Rune who was then still ranked down at No. 40.

This is a different Rune. It’s also a different (not as effective) Ruud.

Rune will move up to a career-best No. 6 in the rankings if he wins.

Rune vs Ruud Match History

The young Dane’s all-court game contrasts with Ruud’s pretty unilateral baseline game. His forehand is better than Ruud’s, and his backhand can probably hold up.

Rune vs Ruud Prediction

Rune’s youth and insouciance means it won’t bother him a bit that he’s lost four times in four matches on clay to Ruud.

He knows Ruud isn’t the same player in 2023.

Caveat: Ruud, a pretty laidback guy, isn’t a huge fan of his fellow Scandinavian. “We don’t exactly exchange Christmas cards,” was his sly way of acknowledging that some time back. But is that enough for him to play exponentially better than he has so far in 2023? Unlikely.

Can he get a set? Possible. The forecast is awful and the stopping and starting may affect Rune more than Ruud.

Rune vs Ruud Picks: Over 2.5 Sets  (+120)