Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – Italian Open Semifinals

• Stefanos Tsitsipas is the -146 betting favorite over Daniil Medvedev in their ATP Italian Open semifinal on Saturday, May 20
• World #3 Medvedev holds a 7-4 edge over world #5 Tsitsipas in 11 previous matches
• They’ve split two prior meeting on clay surfaces. See the Medvedev vs Tsitsipas odds and our prediction for the match here

The measure of what Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev find themselves on the verge of achieving at the ATP Italian Open is a story within itself. Tsitsipas is a win away from a repeat performance. He lost last year’s final to Novak Djokovic.

Medvedev, meanwhile, is experiencing an unprecedented fortnight on the clay courts of Rome. Before this year, he’d never won a match in the Italian Open. Suddenly, he finds himself facing Tsitsipas in the semifinals, with a chance to get to the tournament final.

Even though Medvedev is ranked #3 in the world and Tsitsipas is at #5, oddsmakers are going with the Greek player as the -146 betting choice in the Medvedev vs Tsitsipas odds.

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

At +124, Medvedev is given an underdog betting line in the ATP Madrid odds even though he’s previously beaten Tsitsipas in seven of 11 meetings. The spread is -1.5 in favor of Tsitsipas. The over/under on the match total is set at 22.5 games. This match is slated for Saturday, May 20 at 10:00 am EST.

Odds as of May 19 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to claim this FanDuel promo code to make your Medvedev vs Tsitsipas picks at the Italian Open.

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Medvedev Making Personal History

When he arrived in the Italian capital for this tournament, Medvedev was still wondering what it would feel like to win an Italian Open match.

In his quarterfinal match against German qualifier Yannick Hanfmann, #3 seed Medvedev was an easy 6-2, 6-2 straight-set winner. It took him just one hour and 20 minutes to dispatch Hanfmann.

The day has finally come…

Daniil Medvedev is the highest-ranked player remaining at a major clay-court event 👀pic.twitter.com/R31vWeFGiP

— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) May 17, 2023

Medvedev sat back on the baseline to absorb the powerful hitting game of his German opponent. In the first set, he won 80% of his first service points (16 of 20). The Russian player hit 14 winners.

Medvedev held an 8-0 edge in aces, winning six of 10 break points during the match. He held a 74-32% advantage in first serve winning percentage.

It was his ATP Tour-leading 18th victory this season in a Masters 1000 event and Medvedev’s 37th overall victory of the season.

Tsitsipas Dispatches Coric

In winning his quarterfinal over veteran Borna Coric, #5 seed Tsitsipas required just one hour and 36 minutes to post a 6-3, 6-4 victory. It was the Greek player’s fourth successive straight-set win in Rome.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Match History

Things haven’t always gone so swimmingly when Coric is on the other side of the net from Tsitsipas. This victory left their all-time series deadlocked at 3-3.

Tsitsipas saved three of four break points during this match. His winning percentage was 74% on first service and 100% on second service.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Head-to-Head

Tsitsipas is now 13-3 on clay surfaces in 2023.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Prediction

Overall, Medvedev owns a 7-4 edge over Tsitsipas in prior head-to-head meetings. However, the Greek has beaten the Russian in three of their last four matches and four of the past six. That includes a straight-set 6-3, 7-6(3), 7-5 triumph by Tsitsipas in the semifinals at Roland Garros in 2022.

Stefanos Tsitsipas on facing Daniil Medvedev in Rome SF: "There are certain matchups that bring drama.. he's been playing well. I feel good on court… I really hope to bring the best out of me against him. I feel like he's playing better than the years before.." pic.twitter.com/mwRr3y81VI

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) May 18, 2023

On clay, Tsitsipas certainly has more tools in his toolbox than Medvedev. While he’s pursuing his fifth ATP title of the season, Medvedev is playing in just his second-ever ATP Masters 1000 clay-court semifinal. His previous appearance was at Monte Carlo in 2019.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Picks:

• Tsitsipas to win (-146)
• Tsitsipas 2-1 (+290)