Inter Milan vs AC Milan Predictions, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Semifinals Leg 2

• Inter Milan square off against AC Milan in the second leg of their Champions League League semifinal tie on Tuesday, May 16th, at 3:00 pm ET
• Inter Milan have a 2-0 advantage thanks to goals from Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the first leg
• Get our Inter Milan vs AC Milan prediction and odds below

After just five days of rest, we are in store for another Derby della Madonnina in the Champions League semifinals. This time around, Inter Milan will have the home fans behind them at the San Siro, with a 2-0 advantage to boot. The first leg was dominated by the Nerazzurri, as they scored twice within the first 12 minutes. Moreover, Hakan Calhanoglu could have made it 3-0, had his rocket from 30 yards snuck inside the right post. Continue reading for our Inter Milan vs AC Milan prediction and odds.

For large parts of the match, a Rafael Leao-less AC Milan looked frankly disinterested. If the challenge on Tuesday was not already daunting enough, a 2-0 loss to Spezia in the league and a public hairdryer treatment from the fans turns the pressure up even higher for Stefano Pioli’s side.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Odds

Unsurprisingly, Inter Milan are once again the favorites at the San Siro, with moneyline odds of +110. These odds have an implied win probability of 48.8%, which is fair given Inter’s seven game win streak and their recent 4-0-1 record versus their local rivals. While the AC Milan moneyline sits at +270, their odds to advance in this tie are even more lofty at +1200.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan odds as of  May 15th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Want a great soccer bonus for the Champions League?

In the Champions League odds, Inter Milan are the second most favored side to lift the Ol’ Big Ears at +300. Meanwhile, AC Milan have the longest odds in the remaining pool of teams at +2800, which is obviously a result of their first leg deficit.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Preview

Overall, this game is expected to stay quite calm in terms of the goal tally; at least according to the sportsbooks. The under on 2.5 total goals currently sits at a juicier price of -135, while the reverse option at the same total has plus odds of +110. Despite the under being favored, the over at this total has hit in 60% of their last ten head-to-head encounters across all competitions.

On top of that, Inter have three double-digit goal scorers, and AC Milan will be looking for a goal early. Also, they very well could be bolstered by the return on Leao on the left wing. Inter did give up three goals to Benfica in the second leg of their quarterfinal at the San Siro, so I would actually take a swing on the over here.

Džeko becomes the second oldest player to score in the semi-finals (37 years, 54 days) ⚽️#UCL pic.twitter.com/ZR1VcgR5YV

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 16, 2023

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Props – Martinez to Score

Furthermore, I am favoring a play on Lautaro Martinez to score in the second leg. While the Argentinean only took one shot and did not score in the first leg, he has a good history against the Rossoneri. In fact, he has seven goals in 13 appearances against AC Milan, scoring 0.63 goals per 90 minutes. With five goals in his last five outings, including one at the weekend against Sassuolo, this play at +160 has great value.

What Impact Can Rafael Leao Make?

The big question in this game is can Rafael Leao bring AC Milan back from the dead after their leg 1 loss? Most likely the answer to that loaded question is simply, no.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Champions League play.

Leao will bring pace and creativity to the left flank, and could challenge the likes of Denzel Dumfries and Francesco Acerbi.  However, his impact cannot overturn a 2-0 score line in AC Milan’s favor. The Rossoneri’s problems are deeper than that, and the potential absences of Rade Krunic and Ismael Bennacer in the midfield will exploit these issues further. While the Portuguese winger could score a goal and influence the match, the tie is all but decided in my books.

AC Milan Ultras confronting the manager and players after their defeat today pic.twitter.com/NMd0XMxGvK

— Football Chants (@FootyFansChants) May 13, 2023

Inter Milan vs AC Milan History

Of course Inter was a winner in the last meeting between these teams in Leg 1. That is the third straight win by Inter over their rivals, having won 1-0 and 3-0 in the other two meetings during that stretch. Inter is 4-1-1 in this derby over the past six meetings.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Projected Lineups and Injuries

Inter Milan Projected Lineup: Onana, Dimarco, Bastoni, Acerbi, Darmian, Dumfries, Mkhitaryan, Calhanoglu, Barella, Dzeko, Martinez

Major Injuries & Absences: Skriniar, Dalbert, Correa (questionable)

AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Hernandez, Tomori, Kjaer, Calabria, Tonali, Pobega, Saelemaekers, Leao, Giroud, Diaz

Major Injuries & Absences: Ibrahimovic, Bennacer, Florenzi, Krunic, Messias

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction

All in all, I am riding with the Inter moneyline (+110), over 2.5 goals (+110) and Martinez to score (+160) in my Inter Milan vs AC Milan picks.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Picks: Inter moneyline (+110), Over 2.5 Goals (+110), L. Martinez to Score (+160)

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