Kentucky Derby Underdogs – Can Confidence Game or Rocket Can Upset the Kentucky Derby Odds?
By Chris Amberley in Horse Racing News
Updated: May 16, 2024 at 7:35 am EDTPublished:
- Each of the past three winners of the Kentucky Derby have been priced at +2700 or longer
- Rich Strike took the crown as an 80-1 longshot in 2022
- Check out the best longshots to target at this year’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs below
The Kentucky Derby breeds chaos from a betting perspective. The event demands things from three-year-old horses that they’ve never done before. So, it’s no wonder the race produces a bevy of longshot winners. Read on for an analysis of the Kentucky Derby Underdogs.
Per the Kentucky Derby betting trends, just 10 post-time favorites have captured the prestigious title since 2000, and none since 2018. Each of the past three winners have gone off with price tags of +2700 or longer, and there are a handful of longshots ahead of Saturday’s running at Churchill Downs that are worthy of a wager.
As of Friday evening, Forte is the favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds at +400. He’s followed by Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire at +600.
11 of the 19 horses are priced at 20-1 or longer, but sadly there will be no +8000 winner like in 2022. Rich Strike shocked the horse racing world last year at that number, but no horse boasts odds longer than +3900 on the eve of the race.
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Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis
There are so many variables that come into play when trying to figure out how to pick a Kentucky Derby winner. As a result, it makes targeting the top of the board feel like a fool’s errand. Sure, every so often the favorite will win, but like golf betting, there’s so much volatility in the sport that it brings many different participants into play.
For starters, none of the horses have ever run a mile-and-a-quarter race. They’ve also never raced in front of a packed crowd of 120,000 people. Less than half of the horses have any track experience at Churchill Downs, while none of the thoroughbreds have experience running in a 19-horse field.
Rick Strike pulled off an UNBELIEVABLE upset at last year's @KentuckyDerby. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/U1I41zQCZ8
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 1, 2023
Those are all significant hurdles a horse has to overcome to win on Saturday. So, if you can build a case for some Kentucky Derby underdogs, you might as well swing for the fences at one of the best horse racing betting apps.
Kentucky Derby Underdogs
Let’s start our Kentucky Derby 2023 picks with Confidence Game at +2000. He’s one of only eight horses to run at Churchill Downs in the past. The 3-year-old Colts has competed at the famous track four times, winning twice.
He won a wet, sloppy race at Oaklawn Park back in February, and conditions could be similar on Saturday. The track was hit with rain on Friday, and although spectators should stay dry on Saturday, a horse that’s comfortable in the mud could definitely have an advantage.
"He's a happy horse, he does everything right, and he likes this racetrack."
Jockey James Graham talks about #KyDerby contender CONFIDENCE GAME: pic.twitter.com/BSnQtQcVas
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 30, 2023
If there’s a reason for concern, it’s that he hasn’t raced in 10 weeks. Should he go on to win on Saturday, he would break the record for the longest lay-off leading up to the race in Kentucky Derby history.
He certainly didn’t look rusty last week during his final timed workout. He clocked five furlongs in 59 seconds flat, the fastest of 54 times at that distance for the day.
Given the potential muddy conditions, we should also consider Rocket Can at +3600. Like Confidence Game, he’s won at Churchill Downs in the past, only his victory was in the mud. He comes from a prestigious pedigree, hailing from Into Mischief’s bloodline that has already produced two Kentucky Derby winners (Mandaloun and Authentic).
Raise Cain is another one of our Kentucky Derby best bets. He doesn’t have the same type of pedigree, nor does he have the track experience. However, he has excelled in the mud in the past.
Raise Cain took home a victory at Ozone Park in the Gotham Stakes back in March, winning by seven and a half lengths on a soggy track. A handful of longshot winners had zero experience at Churchill Downs prior to their Kentucky Derby triumph, Mine that Bird for example, and Raise Cain has already seen plenty of action on him.
He opened at 50-1 but has since been bet down to +3700. That’s the fourth-longest price on the board and a bet that’s definitely worth your attention.
Picks: Confidence Game (+2000), Rocket Can (+3600), Raise Cain (+3700)
Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!
- Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
- Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
- How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers
- Recent Form of Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
