Jan-Lennard Struff vs Aslan Karatsev Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Semifinals

• Jan-Lennard Struff is the -138 favorite over Aslan Karatsev in their ATP Madrid Open semifinal on Friday, May 5
• Karatsev beat Struff in the qualifying final for this tourney
• The German player only gained entry as a lucky loser. Who is the best bet in the Struff vs Karatsev prediction?

It will be the lucky loser against the qualifier as Jan-Lennard Struff clashes with Aslan Karatsev in the semifinals of the ATP Madrid Open. It’s the German, Struff, favored in the Struff vs Karatsev odds.

World #65 Struff, only in the tournament because of a spot opened up in the tournament in the final of the qualifier, stunned #4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(7-5), 5-7, 6-3 in their quarterfinal match. Meanwhile, Karatsev, who beat Struff in that qualifier, ended the historic run of China’s Zhinzen Zhang in straight sets in their quarterfinal match.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Aslan Karatsev Odds

At +940, Karatsev is given an underdog betting line in the ATP Madrid odds even though he’s already beaten Struff here. The spread is -1.5 in favor of Struff. The over/under on the match total is set at 22.5 games. This match is slated for a 2:00pm ET start on Friday, May 5.

Odds as of May 4 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to claim this FanDuel promo code to make your Struff vs Karatsev picks at the Madrid Open.

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Karatsev Keeps On Rolling

A qualifier in Madrid, Karatsev is through to the semifinals of an ATP Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career. He’s only the second qualifier to ever reach the semifinal stages at Madrid.

In a battle of unsung players holding hot hands, he took out China’s Zhizhen Zhang  in straight sets 7-6(7-3), 6-4. In winning a hard-fought first set, Karatsev was also ending the tie breaking magic of Zhang. He’d won five straight tiebreakers in Madrid coming into the quarterfinals.

Aslan Karatsev becomes the first player to reach the semis of a Grand Slam and a Masters 1000 as a qualifier

— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) May 4, 2023

After falling behind 3-0 in the tiebreaker, Karatsev won seven successive points to take the set. Karatsev saved all three break points he was facing in that first set and won his only service break in the second set. The Russian hit 29 winners during the match.

In 2021, Karatsev reached the semifinals of the Australian Open as a qualifier in his first Grand Slam appearance. He won three ATP tournaments that year, along with the Davis Cup, climbing to #14 in the world rankings. But he endured an 11-29 skid to end 2022 and at one point lost seven straight first-round matches. The slump saw the Russian player slide out of the top 100 of the world rankings.

Struff Strutting His Stuff

Struff looked to be in jeopardy against Tsitsipas when he faulted away the first break of the match at 5-5 in the second set. He lost that set 7-5, but then rebounded to take control of the match in the third set. The German player and Tsitsipas are now 3-3 in six head-to-head meetings. However, Struff is 2-0 when the two players meet on a clay surface.

Struff vs Karatsev Match History

Struff has lost only five service games in the Madrid main draw. He dropped just one in the match against Tsitsipas. this was just his third ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal appearance, but his second in as many tournaments after getting to the final eight at Monte Carlo.

Like Karatsev, Struff is on the rebound from a slide down the world rankings. While recovering from a right foot injury suffered last year at Miami, he skidded all the way to 167 in the ATP rankings.

Struff vs Karatsev Head-to-Head

Karatsev is the first qualifier to reach the ATP Madrid semifinals since Fabrice Santoro in 2002. He’s beaten three seeded players already in Madrid.

Struff is the third lucky loser to advance to the semi-finals of an ATP Masters 1000 event. The others were Thomas Johansson (2004 Toronto) and Lucas Pouille (2016 Rome).

Struff vs Karatsev Prediction

Struff is known for his powerful service game and ability to hit devastating backhand winners. Perhaps no player on the ATP Tour strikes the ball as cleanly and smoothly as Karatsev. His game is predicated on hitting baseline winners.

3 – For the 3rd time in the history of an ATP-1000 tournament (since 1990) 2 players who were part of the qualifiers (Aslan Karatsev – Q and Jan-Lennard Struff – LL) will appear in the SFs after Paris Masters 2003 (Radek Stepanek, Max Mirnyi) and Hamburg Masters 2004 (Richard… pic.twitter.com/WYVskIdq2e

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) May 4, 2023

The question is how much weight do you give to their meeting on this exact surface in the qualifying final nine days ago? Considering that Karatsev was a decisive winner in that match, probably a lot.

Struff vs Karatsev Picks:

• Karatsev to win (+116)
• Karatsev 2-1 (+350)

Also be sure to make your Alcaraz vs Coric picks from the other side of the Madrid Open bracket on Friday.