Real Madrid vs Osasuna Odds & Prediction – Copa del Rey Final

• It’s Real Madrid vs Osasuna in the final of the 2022-23 Copa del Rey
• It all kicks off on Saturday, May 6 in Sevilla’s Estadio La Cartuja at 4pm ET
• Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Real Madrid vs Osasuna in the final of the Copa del Rey on Saturday, May 6. It all kicks off in Seville’s Estadio La Cartuja at 4:00 pm ET.

For the mighty Real Madrid, this will be their 40th final, while for Osasuna this is just their second-ever showpiece after being the beaten finalists in 2004-05.

We preview our Real Madrid vs Osasuna picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Odds

The bookmakers have Real listed as odds-on favorites at -285 to win in regular time with an implied win probability of 74%, while Osasuna are on offer at a huge +750 to win the game with a probability of 12%.

The draw after 90 minutes is priced at +450 in the Real Madrid vs Osasuna odds and is implied at 18%. Madrid is massive  -750 favorite if it goes to extra time and/or penalties.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 5.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 3.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the under at -195 and the over at a far more tempting +155

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Preview

Real have recently been leapfrogged by city rivals Atletico in the La Liga title race, although as a contest it’s been over for some time with Barcelona leading the table by 13 points with just five games left to play.

But, while there will be no title for Real, they will be desperate to end the campaign with some silverware.

Los Blancos have upcoming a two-legged Champions League semifinal with Manchester City, but such is the thirst for trophies at the Santiago Bernabéu, they will be desperate to get the Copa del Rey in the bag before their focus can turn to the City game.

🔛⚽🔥#RMCity pic.twitter.com/kGvxIscfDo

— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) May 4, 2023

Real Have Been the Cup Kings

On Tuesday night, Real ceded second place in La Liga after losing 2-0 to Real Sociedad – not helped by losing Dani Carvajal to a red card in the 61st minute – and it’s this patchy form that has seen Carlo Ancelotti’s slip out of title contention.

But while Barca has simply been too good for Real in La Liga, Los Blancos have been imperious in the cup competitions, and it was the Catalans they beat in the semi to qualify for this final.

This will be their 40th Copa del Rey final, 19 of which have ended in victory, but they still lag behind Barcelona who have played in 42 finals and won the trophy a record 31 times.

History Making Osasuna?

For Osasuna, this is only their second Copa del Rey final. Their only other appearance was in 2005 when they were beaten 2-1 by Real Betis after extra time, But while they come into this as massive underdogs, Los Rojillos will believe that, assisted by their fanatical support, one of the biggest days in the club’s history can end in victory.

It has not been a particularly comfortable route to the final for Jagoba Arrasate’s men, who have had to work hard at every turn, but wins over Fuentes, Arnedo, Gimnastic Tarragona, Real Betis, and Sevilla set them up for a two-legged semi with Athletic Bilbao, which they won 2-1 on aggregate.

Leader ⚓️#ItsInOurSpirit pic.twitter.com/rPLdDFUq7K

— C. A. OSASUNA (@osasuna_en) May 4, 2023

Mid-Table Beckons for Osasuna

Osasuna, based in Pamplona, are in that group of La Liga teams who, without being strong enough to challenge for the title, are in the mix for the lower European spots. But, like last season, they look likely to just miss out and are currently in tenth – the position in which they finished in 2021-22.

Problematic for Osasuna is that they go into Saturday’s game having not beaten Real Madrid in the last decade – their last success against them coming way back in 2011. Clearly, this is a psychological hurdle they have to overcome if they are to make this a close final.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Team Lineups and Injuries

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois, Camavinga, Valverde, Rudiger, Militao, Carvajal, Kroos, Tchouameni, Benzema, Rodrygo, Vinicius.

Injuries & absences: Mendy, Alaba (doubtful), Modric (doubtful).

Osasuna Projected Lineup: Herrera, Moncayola, Aridane, Garcia (D), Cruz, M Gomez, Torro, Oroz, Garcia (R), Ezzalzouli, Kike Garcia.

Injuries & absences: Brasanac.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Head-to-Head Stats

Copa del Rey Final Prediction

The odds suggest an easy win for Real, who of course have infinitely more experience of the big occasion than their opponents, but this is a Real Madrid team that has lost to both Girona and Real Sociedad in the last two weeks. And with a massive UCL semifinal against Man City coming up on Tuesday, this is not a bad time for Los Rojillos to be playing Los Blancos.

So, I’m going big here and predicting that, for all the reasons above, this will be a very special day for Osasuna. While they will need to withstand lots of Real Madrid pressure, if they are effective and ruthless on the break, they can sneak a single-goal victory in regular time.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Picks: Osasuna to win in 90 mins (+750) / Over 3.5 goals (+155)