Maria Sakkari vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – WTA Madrid Open Semifinals

• Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka meet for the ninth time, in Thursday’s Madrid Open semifinals
• Sabalenka, who is the favorite in the Sakkari vs Sabalenka odds, leads their head-to-head 5-3
• Does Sakkari have a shot? Read on as we make our Sakkari vs Sabalenka picks for the match

If you take away the last two year-end finals, Aryna Sabalenka has dominated her rivalry with Maria Sakkari. But their Madrid Open semifinal Thursday will be their first meeting on clay. Read on for our Sakkari vs Sabalenka prediction of the match here.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Odds

At -300 odds, No. 2 seed Sabalenka is the favorite in the Sakkari vs Sabalenka semifinal at the Madrid Open Tuesday. Sakkari is the underdog at +225 odds. Sakkari vs Sabalenka odds as of May 3 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on the Madrid Open this week.

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Sabalenka’s Roll Continues

With a 27-4 record so far this season, Aryna Sabalenka is atop the race to the WTA Finals. She has four finals (including two titles, including the Australian Open) and two quarterfinals in her six events so far in 2023.

On clay, she’s 7-1, her only loss to Iga Swiatek in the Stuttgart final 10 days ago.

So far in Madrid, she has only dropped one set.

Sherif Poses Challenge – For Awhile

Egypt’s Mayar Sherif, born on Sabalenka’s birthday but two years earlier, managed to abscond with the first set of their quarterfinal.

Sherif’s forehand has massive spin on it. And even a player as tall as Sabalenka has to hit it from uncomfortable positions they’re not accustomed, to as most WTA players hit a much flatter ball.

But to her credit, she figured it out, and didn’t panic. After that, Sabalenka dropped just three games in the second and third sets.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Sakkari Struggles, But Beats Begu

Sakkari came into Madrid with a 15-8 record – not bad, but hardly top-10 material. She’s been beaten by Zhu Lin and Petra Martic. She took just three games from Karolina Pliskova in her Dubai opener, and just five games against her in her Stuttgart opener.

Other losses have been to excellent players. But still, you would expect her to win some of them.

Mostly, the game writ large is getting better. While Sakkari herself seems to sort of be running in place.

But she’s had a great run in Madrid, helped by the fact that the best players in her section of the draw didn’t make the date. No. 4 seed Ons Jabeur injured her calf in Stuttgart. And No. 6 Coco Gauff’s singles game is all over the place these days. Her win over Irina-Camelia Begu in the quarters was a struggle.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Match History

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Prediction

All eight of the previous meetings have been on hard courts, most of them reasonably quick except for the most recent clash at Indian Wells.

But Madrid, despite being on clay, is fairly quick. Because the altitude (2,130 feet) makes the ball fly that much more.

Sakkari’s rep is that she’s excellent on clay. But in fact her stats are fairly uniform across all surfaces. Except her tiebreak record, which is below .500 on clay. She does break serve more often. But most players do.

6 – Aryna Sabalenka is the sixth player to reach 10+ WTA-1000 semi-finals before turning 25 after Agnieszka Radwanska, Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki, Simona Halep and Elina Svitolina – since 2009. Collection.#MMOPEN | @MutuaMadridOpen @WTA @WTA_insider pic.twitter.com/yZztPwRuAS

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) May 2, 2023

Sabalenka’s won-loss on clay is her “worst”. But she still wins two-thirds of her matches on it, which is superior to Sakkari’s 59 per cent.

Only Iga Swiatek matches Sakkari with 20 or more WTA semifinals over the last three season. Impressive, but Sakkari is 5-15 in those matches, with no titles. So the trend is she gets there, but then it gets complicated.

The Belarussian is playing better tennis. And while Sakkari will certainly have her moments, this one doesn’t particularly feel like a three-setter.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Prediction: Sabalenka to Win First Set, and the Match (-166)