Kentucky Derby Best Bets: Win, Place & Show Picks – Tapit Trice & Angel Of Empire Favored

• The first Saturday in May annually brings America’s biggest horse race, the Kentucky Derby
• The winner gets roses and all the attention, but considering who will finish right behind the champ is worthwhile
• Where can we find win, place, and show betting value for our 2023 Kentucky Derby best bets?

The favorite wins roughly a third of all races, and six times in the past 10 runnings of the Kentucky Derby the betting choice has triumphed. That does not mean there isn’t money to be made, regardless of the winner.

Last year Rich Strike shocked the world winning the Derby and paying $163.60 for a two dollar win bet, $74.20 to place, and $29.40 to show. The previous two winners cashed for $18.80 and $26.20. If you didn’t have those horses, in 2020 Mr Big News paid $16.80 to show, and a year later Mandaloun cashed to the tune of $23 to place.

Seven times in the last 10 years a horse at +2500 or more has hit the board. While those who follow horse racing closely love to use foreign horse racing terminology, this doesn’t need to be rocket science. Often your Kentucky Derby best bets are simple. Who will get to the wire first, second, and third?

Let’s examine the latest odds and discuss the horses we want to bet on to win, place, and show.

*Update – As of Saturday morning the race favorite Forte has been scratched with a bruised foot.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets for 2023

At 3-1 odds Forte is the Kentucky Derby favorite for a win bet, followed by Tapit Trice at 5-1 and Angel of Empire at 8-1. However, you can also bet Forte (and others) at shorter odds to place (+140) or show (-110). All odds taken May 5.

Keep your eye on Kentucky Derby odds and make sure you are logged in to your favorite Horse racing betting apps to get the best odds and promotions for the Kentucky Derby.

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How to bet on the Kentucky Derby isn’t difficult to understand, but is worth explaining. A win bet cashes if your horse crosses the finish line first and isn’t disqualified.

On a bet to place, you finish ahead if your horse gets to the line first or second. A show wager make you money if your horse is among the top three. Obviously, payouts generally are not as high when you score on a place or show bet, but there can be solid value if you target the right longshot that hits the board.

Best Kentucky Derby Win Bet

There are a lot of theories on how to bet the Kentucky Derby. Handicappers like to look closely at each horse’s previous races, consider breeding, human connections, and much more. In the same way that sports have analytics, Beyer Speed Figures help compare the top contenders, which is important since they raced different distances on separate tracks against varying levels of competition.

Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Forte is the deserving Derby favorite. He’s won six of seven career races and has navigated every challenge on the track. His top Beyer figure is 100, second best in the field. However, his Beyer figures are trending the wrong direction (100 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, 98 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, 95 in the Florida Derby). That is not normal for a Derby winner.

Would Forte’s fig have been higher had he avoided the 11 post position, making him work harder to gut out a victory in the Florida Derby? Maybe. Just winning when running that wide is impressive. While Forte probably has the best chance to wear the roses, passing at a short price with his speed figures trending backwards is reasonable.

If not Forte, then who? While it is easy to slightly prefer one horse or another, differentiating the American contenders is somewhat difficult this year. To a degree, many look roughly as fast as each other. They all have pros and cons, but nobody sticks out.

On the flip side, two Japanese entrants look very different. There are no Beyer figures abroad, but Derma Sotogake won Dubai’s UAE Derby in one of the fastest times in race history. From the top racing circuit in Japan, he was flattered when Mandarin Hero, a Japaneese horse who races on their second circuit, ran head-to-head with Practical Move in a very tight Santa Anita Derby.

The track record of foreign horses in the Derby is not pretty. Twelve horses have prepped for the Kentucky Derby in Dubai since 2000. Not only have none of them won, they have yet to finish among the top three. That said, Derma Sotogake is going to get bet more aggressively than any of those horses before, because he looks better. He won a pair of stakes races in Japan late last year, before finishing third against a solid field at the Saudi Derby in February. After winning the UAE Derby, he shipped to Kentucky, giving him more time than most horses who have traveled from the Middle East to America to acclimate.

Japan has recently won several classic races across the globe including a pair of Breeders Cup events in 2021. Their day is coming. Could this be the year in Louisville?

Best Kentucky Derby Place Bet

If we’re passing on Forte to win, the dollars and cents don’t make him a very intriguing bet in any spot, even though he clearly could finish second or third.

The Blue Grass Stakes this year was a terrific stretch duel between Tapit Trice and Verifying. Tapit Trice prevailed, and he has won four straight races. That said, the first three came against questionable fields. His only big Beyer number, 99, came in the Blue Grass. Tapit Trice’s style, rallying from far back makes him dependent on a near perfect trip to get home. His trainer Todd Pletcher, who also conditions Forte, is among the best in the business. However, Pletcher is just two for 62 in the Derby and since winning in 2017 has sent out 14 starters, and only one has hit the board.

Verifying has run six times, posting a 99 in the Blue Grass, and a 97 three races ago. In-between he ran an uncompetitive fourth in the Rebel Stakes. However, it was too late before he found racing room, bottled up for much of the turn and stretch drive, and he may not have liked the sloppy track. If you can throw that race out, he sure looks competitive, and if the tempo of the race isn’t fast, like many experts believe, he could be sitting in a great spot, just off the pace, to pounce down the lane.

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Best Kentucky Derby Show Bet

Who can hit the board at a price? Beyer figures make very clear the answer is Two Phil’s. In fact, his 101 is the top Beyer number in the race. Why isn’t he more of a favorite? The 101 came racing on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface.

Two Phil’s was a massive longshot when he finished seventh behind Forte in October’s Breeders Futurity. After beating an average stakes field at Churchill Downs in October, he was +420 in January’s Lecomte Stakes and finished second. A month later he was third at +570 in the Risen Star Stakes. Facing Derby runners in both races, his Beyers were 88 and 86. So was his Jeff Ruby Steaks performance at Turfway because he loved the feel of the track, or has just gotten a lot better? If it is a combination, he’s already won under the twin spires. Value is present on a horse that we can’t really tell whether he has taken the leap or not.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets for 2023

We’re tossing out Todd Pletcher’s top pair because Forte is too short a price with figs trending backwards, and Tapit Trice from a style standpoint is going to need a lot go his way. The tempo will need to be quick and/or he needs to get a near perfect trip rallying from behind.

Derma Sotogake is trying to buck a bunch of bad trends on international runners, but he looks the part, has been in America for weeks, and also should be forwardly placed.

Verifying should be in a great position turning for home and because of his hiccup that has valid excuses in the Rebel, he possesses betting value.

Two Phil’s most recent performance using Beyer figures is the best in the field. At a big price, it is worth seeing if that number is legit.

As a bonus, Mandarin Hero looked the part in his lone try in the US. If you believe in Derma Sotogake, or if you think the Santa Anita Derby was a reasonably strong race, he could make noise at a number.

Here are our top win, place, show Kentucky Derby handicapper picks.

• Win: Derma Sotogake (+1000)
• Place: Verifying (+800)
• Show: Two Phil’s (+350)

Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!

• Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
• Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
• How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
• Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers
• Recent Form of Kentucky Derby Contenders
• Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
• Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
• Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Exotic Bets