2023 Kentucky Oaks Picks, Predictions & Odds – Wet Paint and Botanical Favored
By Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News
Published:
- Friday’s Kentucky Oaks is the female equivalent of Saturday’s Run for the Roses
- Wet Paint is the favorite in a field missing key contenders
- Where can we find betting value on the Lilies for the Fillies in our Kentucky Oaks picks and analysis?
More than 100,000 fans will crowd Churchill Downs Friday for Kentucky Oaks Day. Like Derby Day on Saturday, it is among the biggest days on the horse racing calendar. While Saturday’s focus is on the top three year old boys running a mile-and-a-quarter, Friday the ladies travel a-mile-and-an-eighth. Read on for the Kentucky Oaks odds and predictions here.
When the race was inaugurated in 1875, they went a-mile-and-a-half.
With a big weekend of excitement upon us, reviewing horse racing rules and downloading the best horse racing betting apps is advisable. While Wet Paint is the reasonable Kentuxky Oaks favorite, there are plenty of options in this year’s event.
Let’s look through the field and consider our best betting options for the feature race on Ladies Day at Churchill Downs.
2023 Kentucky Oaks Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wet Paint | +140 |
| Southlawn | +600 |
| Botanical | +800 |
| Wonder Wheel | +1000 |
| Gambling Girl | +1000 |
| Pretty Mischievous | +1200 |
| Defining Purpose | +1200 |
| Flying Connection | +1600 |
| Affirmative Lady | +2000 |
| Mimi Kakushi | +2300 |
| Dorth Vader | +2700 |
| Promiseher America | +2900 |
| The Alys Look | +4700 |
| And Tell Me Nolies | +6700 |
With Kentucky Oaks odds of +140, Wet Paint is the leading favorite for Friday’s race. Southlawns (+600) and Botanical (+800) are also listed at 8-1 or shorter. Odds as of May 5 at TwinSpires.
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When Is the Kentucky Oaks?
The girls are scheduled to break at 5:51 pm EST with the USA Network providing television coverage. The purse is $1.25 million and there is about a 60% chance of rain. Last year 86 year old trainer D. Wayne Lucas won his record tying fifth Oaks when Secret Oath triumphed.
Kentucky Oaks Analysis
Lucas does not have a horse in the Oaks this year, nor does three time winner Bob Baffert. He is suspended from Churchill Downs following Medina Spirit’s disqualification from the 2021 Kentucky Derby after testing postive for a banned substance. Baffert’s star filly, Faiza, is unbeaten but owner Michael Lund Petersen opted not to transfer Faiza to another conditioner who would be eligible to run her in the Oaks.
Another contender who would have gotten a lot of betting attention, Punchbowl, did not earn enough qualifying points to make the 14 horse field. She didn’t debut until February, and raced in only one prep that awarded points. Her runner up performance in the Ashland Stakes was not good enough to draw in.
Does that clear the deck for Wet Paint? Let’s look carefully at the chalk, and who are the favorites to win the Kentucky Oaks.
Kentucky Oaks Favorite
The two year old campaign for Wet Paint did not indicate she was going to be the Oaks favorite. She debuted in a mile turf race at Kentucky Downs, and beat two of 11 rivals. In October she broke her maiden in the slop at Horseshoe Indianapolis, not exactly the top track in America. She concluded 2022 with a second place performance at +741 going a mile on a synthetic surface at Turfway Park.
This year has been a different story. She has won three stakes races at Oaklawn Park, all at a mile-and-a-sixteenth.
Wet Paint is trained by Brad Cox, who has won the Oaks twice in the last five years. In a year where the three year old filly division is up for grabs, she’s been consistent.
Kentucky Oaks Contenders
Also trained by Cox, Botanical has won four straight after starting her career similiarly to Wet Paint. She ran poorly on the sod at Kentucky Downs in September, and then tried turf again, finishing second at +466 going long at Keeneland.
The four straight wins have all come on synthetic at Turfway Park. Each race has been more impressive than the last. She most recently dominated the Bourbonette Oaks at the end of March.
Southlawn’s first six races were a mixed bag. They included two wins, and four off the board performances. At +1070 a February optional claiming victory showed significant improvement. That step forward was punctuated with a very impressive win a month later in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
Not only was Southlawn +770, the fourth choice in a five horse field, but she won easily flying from behind on a day where it was incredibly difficult to rally at Oaklawn. Speed had been holding for the entire card.
Affirmative Lady needed five races to break her maiden, though she was ambitiously spotted twice against stakes horses while still winless. She got her first victory in February, and then at +850 ran her best career race winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks by two lengths. Jockey Luis Saez won the Oaks last year.
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Kentucky Oaks Longshots
After Wonder Wheel won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was the defacto favorite in the Kentucky Oaks odds. Her two races this year have been ho-hum, finishing second in the Suncoast Stakes, and sixth in the Ashland Stakes. Some two year olds don’t take a step forward at the age of three. Or, maybe the connections knew Wonder Wheel would have enough points to get in the Oaks, so they were patient and didn’t have her fully cranked for the pair of prep races.
Kentucky Oaks Best Bets
While it is possible this isn’t the best group of three year old fillies the Oaks has ever seen, and perhaps the top of the pack isn’t running, that creates opportunity in the Kentucky Oaks odds. Wet Paint is good and a deserving favorite but doesn’t feel like a monster. Southlawn’s last race was huge, and two tries in a row has taken big steps forward. Her value is significant.
Pick: Southlawn (+600)
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Sports Writer
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
