Horse Racing Picks – Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby Predictions

• Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby and $1.25 million Arkansas Derby are key Kentucky Derby preps
• Run for the Roses favorite Forte goes at Gulfstream Park, with several interesting options at Oaklawn Park
• Who are the contenders, and where is there value on the road to the Triple Crown this weekend in our horse racing picks?

The winner of the Florida Derby has gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby 15 times. The last time it happened was Always Dreaming in 2017, though Maximum Security finished first in 2019 and was disqualified. The Arkansas Derby winner has worn roses on three occassions with Triple Crown champ American Pharoah most recently doing so in 2015. Both races award 100 qualifying points to the winner, and 40 to whoever finishes second. Either position all but guarantees a spot in the Louisville starting gate. The 30, 20, and 10 points given to placings three through five could be very helpful for those looking to secure their trip on the first Saturday in May.

With Arabian Knight currently injured, Forte is a pretty strong favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds. If Forte wins the Florida Derby, he will likely be the heaviest favorite at the Derby since Tiz The Law in 2020. However, that Derby was run in September because of COVID-19. Forte, who is likely to be +200 or less in Louisville, could be the biggest May favorite since Arazi in 1992.

Can someone derail Forte in the Florida Derby odds? What about an interesting rendition of the Arkansas Derby? Let’s look at the odds and see where value is present for our horse racing picks.

2023 Florida Derby Odds

Both races are a mile-and-an-eighth, and neither track has a strong liklihood of rain early Saturday evening. The Florida Derby will begin at 6:40pm and be televised on CNBC. The Arkansas Derby has a post time of 7:50pm and Fox Sports 2 will air it.

The two races couldn’t be more different. On paper the Florida Derby is a one horse event, while the Arkansas Derby seems open for the taking by any number of options.

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Florida Derby Contenders

Forte has earned $1.83 million in six career races with November’s Breeders Cup Juvenile one of his four stakes victories. The other 11 entrants have made around $870,000 over 47 starts with Dubyuhnell’s Remsen score the only stakes score for the group.

Forte showed no rust in his 2023 debut, winning Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth Stakes by more than four lengths on March 4. Trained by Todd Pletcher, and owned by Mike Repole and Vinnie Viola, he has done little wrong over six career starts. His lone loss came in a sprint race at Saratoga in July.

Fort Bragg was in Bob Baffert’s barn up until recently, but since Baffert’s horses are not eligible to earn Derby qualifying points, he is now conditioned by Tim Yakteen. The $700,000 son of Tapit has only one win in five starts, but has run a couple of pretty fast races including a fifth place performance against a good field at Santa Anita four weeks ago.

Dubyuhnell had lots of racing trouble when finishing eighth as the favorite February 11 in the Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He won two races in the slop at Aqueduct, including the Remsen Stakes late last year.

Cyclone Mischief led for much of the way, but faded to fifth, nearly six lengths behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth. He has faced good competition, but failed to be overly close against them.

Mage had trouble in the Fountain of Youth and still finished fourth. Each of his two races produced strong speed figures, and being lightly raced often means there is improvement to come.

Florida Derby Prediction

Post position 11 is far from ideal, and Forte has enough points to be in the Kentucky Derby regardless of how he runs. The bottom line is his competition simply lacks the resume to suggest they’ll beat him. Are there horses with the ability, very possibly, but we haven’t seen it out of any of them yet.

Florida Derby Picks: Forte (-125)

2023 Arkansas Derby Odds

Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times and twice in the last four years. Though Reincarnate has Yakteen’s name attached to him, the $775,000 son of Good Magic is an interesting favorite in a wide open race.

Arkansas Derby Top Contenders

Reincarnate finished third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on February 25. Red Route One was second, with Bourbon Bash further back. Watch the last eighth of a mile closely. The horses are all over the track in the slop, and Red Route One (#3) cuts off Recincarnate (#6) to some degree.

Reincarnate entered the Rebel with back-to-back wins, while Red Route One has only beaten maidens. That said, Red Route One has faced very strong competition. Red Route One also may be closer to the pace this time, as Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen puts blinkers on.

Rocket Can was the distant runner up to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He won February’s Holy Bull Stakes, and has faced top competition.

Pennsylvania bred Angel of Empire has three wins in five starts. The two in Indiana aren’t overly exciting, but beating Two Phils, who returned to capture last weekend’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, in the Risen Star is pretty strong.

Two Eagles River beat a decent optional claiming group at Oaklawn on February 19, after a slow start to a mediocre third place performance in an optional claimer a month earlier. While finishing eight lengths behind isn’t great, the winner, Verifying, was +150 in the Rebel Stakes, a Derby prep, and Two Eagles River was rank for the early portion of the event. The gelding just missed on the final day of 2022 in a sprint stakes at Oaklawn.

Arkansas Derby Prediction

The Arkansas Derby favorites are reasonable but both hard to separate and not that much more impressive than Two Eagles River, who is a nice price. Trainer Chris Hartman is red hot. Two Eagles River has never finished worse than third, and his last effort was excellent. He had legitimate excuses in his prior try.

Arkansas Derby Pick: Two Eagles River (+1000)