Manchester United vs Newcastle Odds & Prediction – EFL Cup Final

• Manchester United takes on Newcastle in the EFL Cup Final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, February 26th at 11:30 am ET
• The Red Devils are looking to win their sixth league cup and first since 2016-17 while Newcastle aim to win their first major trophy since 1955
• Get more Manchester United vs Newcastle odds and prediction below

Manchester United vs Newcastle in the EFL Cup Final is set to be the game of the weekend in England. Obviously, when hardware is up for grabs the intensity level is raised to a different notch. However, both of these historic clubs will also bring a traveling congregation set to make Wembley shake. Man U enter the final favored in the Manchester United vs Newcastle odds.

For Manchester United, it feels as though the timing is right for Erik ten Hag to lift his first trophy at the club. Newcastle is on a three-game winless skid, while the Red Devils are unbeaten in nine matches across all competitions.

Moreover, Marcus Rashford just seems unplayable at the minute, with 16 goals in just 18 games since the World Cup. The 25-year-old winger is scoring 0.78 goals per ninety minutes, which is an astounding return. Newcastle’s defense is the best in the Premier League in terms of goals allowed, but they will surely be put to the test on Sunday.

Manchester United vs Newcastle Odds

Overall, Manchester United are the favorites here in the EFL Cup odds, with moneyline (regular time) odds of +115. Their betting value drops significantly if you bet on them to lift the cup, with odds currently sitting at -185. In their last five head-to-head matches, Manchester United are unbeaten, but the last two matches have ended in stalemates. Despite Newcastle +0.5 not having much value at -145, a small play on the regular time draw is not a bad substitution, in regards to the result. EFL Cup odds as of  February 24th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Manchester United vs Newcastle Over/Under

Furthermore, this final could be quite tame in terms of goals. The previously mentioned draws between these sides in the past year both stayed below 2.5 total goals, and only one in Newcastle’s last seven matches has eclipsed that total. Manchester United has a sparkling offense, but finals can always be a bit nervy, especially with a group of players looking to win their first major trophy together. In turn, I favor the under on 2.5 total goals, which has decent odds of -120, insinuating an implied win probability of 54.6%.

Manchester United vs Newcastle Props – Rashford to Score

Last time out, we bet on Mo Salah to score against Real Madrid at +180, which hit within 20 minutes. As a result, we are running with another player prop this week and it is for Rashford to score at +140 in our EFL Cup Final picks, which I think is great value for his current form. Also, he has nine goal involvements in just nine matches versus Newcastle. It feels like if Manchester United do win and start their real journey under Ten Hag, Rashford has to be the one to do the damage. He is questionable to play at the moment, so this play is one to keep an eye on.

Ten Hag on Rashford: "I don't know, the players now are coming in, we have to do investigations, medical of course, we did straight after the game, but most of the time you have to wait for a 100 per cent diagnosis. So let's do the medical, the work, we have to wait." #MUFC

— Laurie Whitwell (@lauriewhitwell) February 24, 2023

Manchester United vs Newcastle Projected Lineups and Injuries

Manchester United Projected Lineup: De Gea, Shaw, Martinez, Varane, Dalot, Fred, Casemiro, Rashford, Sancho, Fernandes, Weghorst

Major Injuries & Absences: Rashford (questionable), Van de Beek, Eriksen, Martial

Newcastle Projected Lineup: Karius, Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier, Joelington, Guimaraes, S. Longstaff, Saint-Maximin, Wilson, Almiron

Major Injuries & Absences: Pope, Dubravka, Willock (questionable) Gordon, Krafth

EFL Cup Final Storylines

Another major talking point in the build-up to this final is the goalkeeper situation for Newcastle. Last weekend, Nick Pope was shown red after handling the ball outside of the box against Liverpool. From a general perspective, this loss is monumental and his numbers do the talking in terms of his importance. Since joining Newcastle, Pope has saved 79.7% of shots on target and has kept a clean sheet in 52.2% of his starts.

Manchester United vs Newcastle Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Premier League play.

The backup, Martin Dubravka can also not play, having represented Manchester United earlier in the competition. Now, the gloves get passed to former Liverpool goalie. Loris Karius, who famously errored twice against Real Madrid in that Champions League Final.

"We've shown we can compete with the best and we've earned the right to be here." 👊 pic.twitter.com/cUxd3NAysE

— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) February 24, 2023

For others, this is a huge setback for Newcastle. For me, I think it gives them a reason to kick on even harder. As a Liverpool supporter, I also know that Karius was a very good keeper in the build up to that match. In fact, he too kept a clean sheet in over 50% of his matches in net. This occasion gives him the opportunity to set things right, which is a metric that cannot be measured by statistics.

Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction

All in all, I like the regular time draw here in my Manchester United vs Newcastle prediction, with the match staying under 2.5 total goals. Rashford to score, if he plays, is a nice half-unit play to fill out the EFL Cup picks card on Sunday.

Manchester United vs Newcastle Picks: Draw (+250), Under 2.5 total goals (-120), Rashford to score (+140)