AC Milan vs Tottenham Odds & Picks – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1

• It’s AC Milan vs Tottenham in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, February 14
• This first leg in Milan is followed by the return leg in North London on Wednesday, March 8
• Find our AC Milan vs Tottenham prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s AC Milan vs Tottenham in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League round-of-16 in the San Siro on Tuesday, February 14 (KO  3pm ET).

While for Milan it was a good weekend, as they ended a poor run with victory over Torino, for Tottenham it was a disaster after going down 4-1 at Leicester.

We preview our AC Milan vs Tottenham picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Odds

Odds as of Feb 13 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

The bookmakers are finding this one tough to call with both teams in plus money. Milan are narrow favorites at +145 for the win with a probability of 41%, while Spurs are at +195 with a probability of 34%. The draw offers the best odds and is pitched at +235, with an implied probability of 30%.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Over/Under and Spread

The oddsmakers are not anticipating a goal-fest – understandable given the history of first legs in European ties – with over 2.5 goals listed at -105, while the under is on offer at -120.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Preview

The pressure had been growing on Milan coach Stefano Pioli after a horrible run of seven games without a win, but last Friday’s narrow 1-0 home win over Torino has at least given him some much-needed respite. If he can follow it up with a win over Tottenham, then the Milan faithful may start to believe again.

But there’s no disguising what a miserable time it has been for the Rossoneri, who over the last few weeks have dropped to fifth in the Serie A table while also getting knocked out of the Coppa Italia and losing in the Italian Super Cup to their bitter rivals, Inter.

🗣️ "There's no better game to get you highly motivated"
Cudicini talks about our #UCL Round of 16 first leg

🗣️ "Non c'è partita migliore per avere le giuste motivazioni"
Carlo presenta così l'Ottavo di Champions#ACMTOT #SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/HNCwns01yV

— AC Milan (@acmilan) February 12, 2023

Poor Recent Record for Rossineri

While Milan has a great Champions League pedigree – they have won it seven times – their recent record has not been good, and this is their first time in the knockout phase of the competition since 2023-14, when they were thrashed 5-1 on aggregate by Atletico Madrid.

In addition to a poor recent record in the UCL, they also have a poor record against Tottenham, who they have failed to beat in all four of their competitive match-ups. When they last met, in 2011-12, Spurs won 1-0 on aggregate.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Head-to-Head Stats

Stats from UEFA Official Site.

Inconsistent Tottenham

Tottenham’s alarming inconsistency was evident again in the last week when, following on from their sensational 1-0 home win over the mighty Manchester City, they went to struggling Leicester City and were hammered 4-1. It was head coach Antonio Conte’s first game back following gallbladder surgery and was not the return he was hoping for.

Despite taking an early lead through Rodrigo Bentancur, the Foxes responded in style and won comfortably with goals from  Mendy, Maddison, Iheanacho, and Barnes. And it could have been even worse for Spurs with Barnes having one ruled out via VAR and Leicester missing several more presentable chances.

“We are disappointed. We have to apologise.”

Cristian Stellini reacts to today's defeat against Leicester City 🗣 pic.twitter.com/HWkrqCjE8W

— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) February 11, 2023

World Class Front Three for Spurs

Spurs will be hoping to put Saturday’s woes behind them as they head to the San Siro while hoping for a better outcome than in their last UCL round-of-16 appearance in 2019-20. Then, under the management of Jose Mourinho, Spurs were beaten 4-0 on aggregate by RB Leipzig; 3-0 in Germany and 1-0 at home.

That was all a far cry from their fairytale journey in 2018-19 when, under Mauricio Pochettino, they made it all the way to the final, only to be beaten at the last hurdle by Liverpool. While this current team appears to lack the consistency to go that deep this time around, they still have a world-class front three who are capable of going toe-to-toe with the best.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Team Lineups and Injuries

AC Milan Projected Lineup: Tatarusanu, Kalulu, Kjaer, Tomori, Saelemaekers, Bennacer, Tonali, Hernandez, Diaz, Leao, Giroud.

Injuries & absences: Maignan.

Tottenham Projected Lineup: Forster, Romero, Dier, Davies, Emerson, Sarr, Skipp, Perisic, Kulusevski, Son, Kane.

Injuries & absences: Lloris, Bentacur, Bissouma, Hojbjerg.

AC Milan vs Tottenham Prediction

Spurs’ alarming inconsistency makes this a tough call, but the Rossineri will definitely be buoyed by last Friday’s win.

On that basis, with a noisy San Siro sure to make it a difficult night for Tottenham, for me there is value here in the home win.

Pick: AC Milan to win (+145)