Dancing With The Stars: Athletes Odds & Predictions
By Kaela Napier in Entertainment
Published:
The full slate of contestants for Season 26 of Dancing with the Stars (DwtS) — titled Dancing with the Stars: Athletes — was released today and, as you might expect, features an all-athlete cast.
The ten athletes competing for the coveted Mirrorball trophy are …
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (retired NBA player)
- Jamie Anderson (snowboarder)
- Johnny Damon (retired MLB player)
- Jennie Finch (softball player)
- Tonya Harding (retired figure skater)
- Chris Mazdzer (luger)
- Mirai Nagasu (figure skater)
- Josh Norman (NFL player)
- Arike Ogunbowale (college basketball player)
- Adam Rippon (figure skater)
Usually, finding the favorite in any DwtS season is as easy as finding the best athletes on the show, so this iteration presents a new wrinkle when it comes to setting the odds. But we’re not ones to shy away from a challenge.
Below, we sort the early frontrunners from the true longshots and look at a couple fun props for Season 26, which premieres on Monday, April 30.
DwtS Season 26 Winner
| COUPLE | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Mirai Nagasu with Alan Bersten | 7/2 |
| Adam Rippon with Jenna Johnson | 4/1 |
| Josh Norman with Sharna Burgess | 6/1 |
| Chris Mazdzer with Witney Carson | 9/1 |
| Â Arike Ogunbowale with Gleb Savchenko | 9/1 |
| Jamie Anderson with Artem Chigvintsev | 12/1 |
| Jennie Finch with Keo Motsepe | 16/1 |
| Johnny Damon with Emma Slater | 18/1 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with Lindsay Arnold | 38/1 |
| Â Tonya Harding with Sasha Farber | 74/1 |
The advantage has to go to the figure skaters. They are essentially professional dancers already, and then some.
Don’t count out Norman, though. NFL players have historically found a lot of success on DwtS, see: Emmitt Smith (Season 3 winner), Hines Ward (Season 12 winner), and Rashad Jennings (Season 24 winner).
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Tonya Harding are the longshots. Kareem because of his age; Harding because of both age and reputation. More on that in a moment …
First Contestant Eliminated
| COUPLE | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Tonya Harding | 5/2 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 9/2 |
| Johnny Damon | 9/1 |
| Jennie Finch | 9/1 |
| Jamie Anderson | 12/1 |
| Chris Mazdzer | Â 15/1 |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Â 15/1 |
| Josh Norman | 19/1 |
| Mirai Nagasu | Â 24/1 |
| Adam Rippon | Â 24/1 |
Eight out of ten contestants are elite athletes at or near their physical peak.
There there’s Kareem (70 years old) and Tanya (47).
The former retired from the NBA in 1989, before Jamie Anderson, Mirai Nagasu, and Arike Ogunbowale were even born. The latter is nearing 50 and most famous for maiming one-time nemesis Nancy Kerrigan. Even if Harding can keep up physically, there’s a good chance the judges penalize her (consciously or subconsciously) for her past.
First Male Contestant to Dance Shirtless
| COUPLE | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Adam Rippon | 2/1 |
| Chris Mazdzer | 3/1 |
| Josh Norman | 3/1 |
| Johnny Damon | 5/1 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 99/1 |
Aside from Kareem, this is a wide-open race, and given the contestants the producers selected, few people will complain if more than one satisfies the criterion.
Tonya Harding/Injury Props
| PROP | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Any contestant, host, or judge references Harding/Kerrigan club incident | 50/1 |
| Â Nancy Kerrigan appears in the audience | Â 999/1 |
| Â Any figure skater (Harding, Rippon, Nagasu) wins Season 26 | 9/7 |
| Any contestant is injured during rehearsals or a routine | 5/1 |
| Any contestant is injured by another contestant | 249/1 |
Harding probably has a clause in her contract that the Kerrigan incident won’t be mentioned on air, but people can always slip up.
As for the injuries, the choreographers are dealing exclusively with athletes this time around, many of whom are used to launching themselves into the air. They will likely plan more risky maneuvers, which could easily lead to injuries. Also, Kareem is ancient.
Entertainment Writer
An unabashed interest in the lives of other people and all things pop culture makes analyzing the world of entertainment an easy fit for Kaela. With a degree in Intercultural Communication, she has contributed to SBD since 2017.
