Bills vs Patriots Props – Best Player Prop Bets for Week 13 Thursday Night Football
By John Perrotto in NFL Football
Published:
- The Bills are 3.5-point road favorites over the Patriots on Thursday Night Football and offer plenty of opportunities for TNF props
- Prop bets are available for such players as Josh Allen, Mac Jones, and Stefon Diggs
- Analysis for some of the top Bills vs Patriots props on the board can be found below with picks
The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen visit the New England Patriots and Rhamondre Stevenson at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Is Stevenson a good bet for your TNF Bills vs Patriots props? Find out our top picks here.
The Bills (8-3) have won back-to-back games, including beating the Detroit Lions 28-25 on Thanksgiving, following a two-game losing streak. Allen’s 3,183 passing yards are second in the NFL behind the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (3,585).
The Patriots (6-5) had their three-game winning streak ended by the Minnesota Vikings 33-26 on Thanksgiving. Stevenson is 15th in the league with 680 rushing yards. His rushing prop is listed at 62.5 yards on TNF.
Bills vs Patriots Player Props
| Passer | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 38.5 (O -115 | U -120) | 267.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 1.5 (O -140 | U +105) |
| Mac Jones (NE) | 34.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 229.5 (O -115) | U -120) | 1.5 (O +145 | U -200) |
| Rusher | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Rushing + Receiving Yards |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | 12.5 (O -140 | U +105) | 52.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 68.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 7.5 (O -105 | U -130) | 42.5 (O -120) | U -110) | OFF |
| James Cook (BUF) | OFF | 15.5 (O -115) | U -115) | OFF |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 15.5 (O -135 | U +100) | 62.5 (O -115) | U -120) | 102.5 (O -120 | U -115) |
| Receiver | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | 6.5 (O +105 | U -140) | 81.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 26.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
| Gabe Davis (BUF) | 3.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 48.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 22.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 3.5 (O +125 | U -165) | 32.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 16.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | 3.5 (O +130 | U -175) | 32.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 16.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| Jakobi Meyers (NE) | 4.5 (O +115 | U -150) | 50.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 20.5 (O -115 | U -120) |
| DeVante Parker (NE) | OFF | 35.5 (O -110 | U -120) | OFF |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 4.5 (O +100 | U -135) | 35.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 14.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 2.5 (O -105 | U -130) | 24.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 14.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
Odds as of December 1st at BetMGM.
The passing yardage over/unders are 267.5 for Allen and 229.5 for the Patriots’ Mac Jones. The Bills are favored by 3.5 points and the total is 43.5 points in the NFL odds.
Looking at the weather, the forecast calls for mostly clear, 32 degrees at kickoff with a low of 24 and west wind at 5-10 mph with gusts up to 23 mph. The game will be streamed on Amazon Prime Video.
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TNF Prop #1: Josh Allen Passing Yards
Though Allen is second in the league in passing yards, he has had an inconsistent year. His NFL-worst 11 interceptions are evidence of that.
Allen was solid against the improved Lions on Thanksgiving, though. He completed 24 of 42 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns with one interception and added 78 yards rushing and a score in 10 carries.
The Patriots are No. 9 in the league against the pass. However, New England was burned for 299 yards and three touchdowns through the air by the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins on Thanksgiving.
Josh Allen Passing Last 5 Games
| Game | Completions/Attempts | Passing Yards | Touchdowns/Interceptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/24 Lions | 24/42 | 253 | 2/1 |
| 11/20 Browns | 18/27 | 197 | 1/0 |
| 11/13 Vikings | 29/43 | 330 | 1/2 |
| 11/6 Jets | 18/34 | 205 | 0/2 |
| 10/30 Packers | 13/25 | 218 | 2/2 |
Josh Allen has had big games against the Patriots in recent seasons. Over his last three starts in Foxborough, Allen has thrown nine touchdowns and no interceptions with a 115.3 passer rating.
Allen, who has +1200 NFL MVP odds, also torched the Patriots for a career-high five touchdown passes in a 47-17 playoff victory last season.
New England linebacker Matt Judon leads the NFL with a career-high 13 sacks, 10 of which have come at Gillette Stadium. However, Allen has the mobility to run away from the pass rush.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 267.5 Passing Yards -120 (1 unit)
TNF Prop #2: Mac Jones Passing Yards
Jones is coming off a career-high 382 yards passing in the loss to the Vikings. The second-year pro completed 28 of 39 attempts with two touchdowns and no picks.
That also marked Jones’ third straight game with a passer rating of at least 100. Four days before Thanksgiving, he was 23 of 27 for 246 yards in a win over the New York Jets.
MAC JONES RESPONDSpic.twitter.com/EN11BatE4s
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 25, 2022
In three games against the Bills as a rookie last year, including the playoffs, Jones had a total of just 396 yards through the air. However, Buffalo ranks 19th in the league against the pass this season. Its rush figures to be more limited with linebacker Von Miller sitting out with a knee injury.
Look for Jones to have more success against the Bills this time around. We’ll take him to go over his TNF passing prop.
Pick: Mac Jones Over 229.5 Passing Yards -115 (1 unit)
Bills vs Patriots Touchdown Scorer Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Any TD |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs (BUF) | +550 | -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +550 | -140 |
| Devin Singletary (BUF) | +700 | +125 |
| Gabe Davis (BUF) | +900 | +150 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1000 | +180 |
| Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) | +1100 | +220 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +1200 | +230 |
| Jakobi Meyers (NE) | +1400 | +220 |
| James Cook (BUF) | +1600 | +320 |
| DeVante Parker (NE) | +1600 | +275 |
TNF Prop #3: Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown
Stefon Diggs is unquestionably Allen’s favorite target. The star wide receiver’s 1,110 receiving yards on 84 catches stands third in the league.
Diggs has also scored nine touchdowns in 2022, one short of his career high. Diggs has gotten into the end zone each of the last two weeks. He also scored four TDs against the Patriots in the three meetings last season. His odds to score a TD on TNF in the Bills vs Patriots props are -115.
Victory hugs.@JoshAllenQB @StefonDiggs pic.twitter.com/QUIxG6bqWp
— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2022
With Allen poised to have a big day, so is Diggs. He seems like a good bet in our Bills vs Patriots picks to score against New England yet again.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer -115 (0.5 unit)
TNF Prop Bet Record: Week 12. Overall: 14-25 (-9.3 units)
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Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
