Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds, Lines, Picks and Predictions for Week 13 Thursday Night Football

• The Buffalo Bills are 4-point road favorites over the New England Patriots in the NFL Week 13 TNF game
• Buffalo is 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to Foxborough. New England is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog over the past two seasons
• See the Bills vs Patriots odds, predictions and our best bet for Thursday Night Football here

As they play host to the Buffalo Bills (8-3, 5-5-1 ATS) in the Week 13 TNF game, there’s a real sense that it’s now or never for the New England Patriots (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS) in terms of their NFL playoff hopes.

Sliding to 6-6 straight up wouldn’t completely extinguish the postseason dream for the Patriots. However, falling three games behind the Bills would leave just one avenue to the playoffs for New England, an AFC Wild Card berth.

Oddsmakers are thinking that New England is indeed in jeopardy. It’s Buffalo that’s set at 4-point road favorites in this game. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Foxborough.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

Odds as of November 30 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here

New England is 9-2 SU in the last 13 Thursday games and 7-3 ATS over the past 10 home games. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their past five games.

Kickoff at Gillette Stadium is set for 8:15 pm ET on Thursday, December 1. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies, 6 mph wind and a temperature of 39 degrees.

The game is airing exclusively on Amazon Prime as part of a new partnership for Thursday Night Football with Amazon.

Buffalo vs New England NFL Betting Trends

The masses are in lockstep with the experts. In the NFL public betting trends, the Bills are also the popular pick. Buffalo is drawing 60% of handle and 75% of bets in the public spread splits. Moneyline splits are going even more toward the Bills, with 82% of handle and 83% of bets backing Buffalo.

The public split on the total is with the over. It’s getting 55% of handle and 70% of bets. In their last six road games, as well as their last seven games as a road favorite, the Bills have gone under every time.

The opening NFL Week 13 lines are displaying that the point spread on this game has shortened from Bills -5.5 to Buffalo -4. The total has shortened on this game from 45.5 points to 43.5 points

With their recent struggles, the Bills have dropped to the second betting choice in the Super Bowl odds at +450. Buffalo is also the -220 odds-on chalk to win the AFC East. New England is a +2800 fourth pick to win the AFC East in the NFL division odds.

Patriots Go As Defense Goes

Last week at Minnesota, New England got lit up for 33 points and lost. It didn’t matter that QB Mac Jones threw for a season-high 382 yards.

.@Patriots +4 vs. Bills.

On latest @BillSimmons podcast, when was last time Patriots were big home dogs (4+ points)?

+7 vs. BAL 2020
+7 vs. BUF 2020
+6.5 vs. TB 2021

Pats 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.

— John Ewing (@johnewing) November 30, 2022

The Patriots are 0-5 SU this season when surrendering 20+ points. The offense has scored fewer than 20 points in four games.

Bills Could Gain Daylight In AFC East

Considering that the 8-3 Miami Dolphins are facing a tough task in Week 13 winning at San Francisco, a victory here could give the Bills sole possession of top spot in the AFC East. And they face the Jets and Dolphins in the next two weeks.

The Bills still aren’t looking like themselves, though. They’ve lost two of their last four games and covered just once in five games. Four of Buffalo’s last five opponents have scored at least 20 points. Bills QB Josh Allen hasn’t been as sharp since injuring his elbow in early November.

Five Starters Out for Buffalo

Buffalo will be taking the field in New England minus five of the club’s starting 22. Among the missing are half of the Bills’ defensive front and 40% of their offensive line.

LDE Greg Rousseau (ankle) and RDE Von Miller (knee) are both out. MLB Tremaine Edmunds (groin) is sitting as well. On offense, LT Dion Dawkins (ankle) and center Mitch Morse (elbow) are ruled out.

Three offensive line starters are questionable for the Patriots. LF Isaiah Wynn (foot), center David Andrews (thigh) and RT Yodny Cajuste (calf) are the walking wounded on the offensive front.

WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder), RB Damien Harris (thigh) PR Marcus Jones (ankle) and RCB Jalen Mills (groin) are also questionable.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction

Buffalo is 4-1 SU in the past five games against New England. With the Bills, WR Stefon Diggs has more receptions (26), receiving yards (373) and TD catches (four) against the Patriots than any other team.

.@BuffaloBills have been on 🔥 against the @Patriots

🏈: @BuffaloBills vs. @Patriots | #TNFonPrime
⏰: Thurs. 7 PM ET, only on @PrimeVideo pic.twitter.com/XjwJs6YW82

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) November 29, 2022

New England is 3-2 SU and ATS at home this season. The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last six games, but 2-4 ATS in their last six against AFC East opposition.

• Pick: Buffalo Bills -4 (-110)
• TNF record (0-0 ML, 4-7 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

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