Holger Rune vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds & Prediction – Rolex Paris Masters Semifinals

• Félix Auger-Aliassime, 22, faces 19-year-old Holger Rune in the Paris Masters semifinals
• It’s a rematch of their Basel Open final just last Sunday, won by Auger-Aliassime
• The match will take place November 5 at 9 am ET. Scroll down for analysis and Rune vs Auger-Aliassime predictions

For the second time in two weeks, the two hottest players on the ATP Tour this fall will meet.

Last Sunday, Félix Auger-Aliassime defeated Holger Rune in the final in Basel.

Saturday, they square off in the semifinals at the Paris Masters.

Rune vs Auger-Aliassime Odds

Odds as of Nov. 4. Use this ESPN BET promo code to bet on the Paris Masters

Auger-Aliassime is a strong -225 favorite to repeat against Rune, in the moneyline odds above.

It’s the first Masters 1000-level semifinal for Rune; it’s the second – and the first since the 2019 Miami Open, for Auger-Aliassime.

Rune Over Alcaraz After a Retirement

The highly anticipated Friday quarterfinal pitting two talented 19-year-olds against each other ended up being a retirement by world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.

The young Spaniard was already down a set; he pulled the ‘chute a few points into the second-set tiebreak, following a medical timeout before Rune served to stay in the set at 5-6.

Serious letdown. Carlos Alcaraz retires down 1-3 in the second-set tiebreaker in Paris quarters to fellow 19-year-old Holger Rune who won the first set 6-3. Alcaraz said he felt an abdominal strain in 2d set, treated at 6-5, clearly concerned about doing further damage@getty pic.twitter.com/16XdfLulzC

— Christopher Clarey 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 (@christophclarey) November 4, 2022

An abdominal strain, it appears. With the ATP Finals coming up and the Davis Cup finals after that, a downcast Alcaraz seemed to feel it was the wisest course of action. Later, he said he wouldn’t serve properly or hit his forehand.

Of course, that also meant that he didn’t complete a match that might have been over in just a few points. Which always gets people going.

Rune vs Auger-Aliassime Head-to-Head

Can Rune Reverse Basel Result?

It feels much longer than five days ago that Auger-Aliassime posted a competitive, but a reasonably routine win over Rune to notch his third ATP Tour title in three weeks.

Since then, the Canadian has added more wear and tear – starting with a 3 1/2-hour slog in his Paris opener over Mikael Ymer.

He caught a break, meeting a depleted (and now retired) Gilles Simon next, followed by a Frances Tiafoe having a pretty comprehensive off day.

But there’s no doubt he’s feeling it.

For Rune, it’s all butterflies and rainbows. The unseeded Dane has played one extra match this week, without the first-round bye his opponent enjoyed.

And that one was a nerve-tingling third-set tiebreak win o er veteran Stan Wawrinka. But it was 2 1/2 hours – a full hour less than Auger-Aliassime vs Ymer.

Since then he’s beaten No. 10 seed Hubert Hurkacz, No. 7 Andrey Rublev and then No. 1 Alcaraz.  All without dropping a set.

Rune vs Auger-Aliassime Match History

Close Call Might Come Down to Endurance

The analytics posted before Friday’s quarterfinals have Auger-Aliassime the better server with the more effective forehand and (surprisingly) the much better returner of the two.

Breaking down how the #RolexParisMasters quarter-finalists' games are looking so far this week with @tennis_insights 📈

Starting with @StefTsitsipas putting on a serving clinic… pic.twitter.com/StmVTj0W1X

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 4, 2022

Rune wins out in the backhand category, which is absolutely no surprise as he’s clearly superior to the Canadian on that side.

Will any of that matter? If Auger-Aliassime keeps holding his serve as he has – he was broken three times in the Ymer marathon but saved 14 other chances, and wasn’t broken in his last two matches on two total chances – it might come down to tiebreaks.

Rune vs Auger-Aliassime Prediction

You hope Rune’s fortunes in this big semifinal won’t come down to the health of his opponent, as they did Friday versus Alcaraz.

But they might. The Dane has played a lot of tennis the last few weeks, but not as much as his opponent.  And he has played it without the pressure of tournament-title streaks and match-win streaks and year-end final qualification pressure. It’s all gravy.

Rune looks fresher. And he’s serving bombs. Auger-Aliassime will have to take chances and pull the trigger on his down-the-line backhand, to keep it to Rune’s forehand. Because backhand-to-backhand exchanges or even his inside-out forehand to Rune’s backhand (which he hits well down the line when the opening is there) won’t favor him.

It might be worth risking the moneyline upset (+180).

Best Bet: Over Over 0.5 tiebreaks (+112)