Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots Odds, Lines, Picks and Predictions for Monday Night Football Week 7

• The New England Patriots (3-3) look for their third win in a row as they take on the Chicago Bears (2-4) on Monday Night Football
• 2022 Record: 6-5, +0.53 units; Monday night record: 3-2, +0.8 units
• See the Bears vs Patriots odds ahead of kickoff on Monday Night Football

After stumbling against the Commanders on Thursday Night Football, the Chicago Bears get a second chance in prime time. This time on Monday Night Football, capping off Week 7 on ESPN.

The Bears travel to New England to take on the Patriots, who find themselves in the middle of a social media-driven QB controversy. It will likely be Mac Jones, not Bailey Zappe under center when things kick off at 8:15 pm ET.

Regardless, a win would help the Pats in the muddled AFC standings. For the Bears, a victory would help take the nasty taste out of last Thursday night a bit. Even if it’s not an offensive onslaught.

Bears vs Patriots Odds

Odds as of October 22nd from Barstool Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the Barstool Sportsbook promo code ahead of kickoff on Sunday.

The New England Patriots are heavy home favorites on Monday night. In fact, there’s only one team in Week 7 with a higher win probability. New England was a home ‘dog against Baltimore in Week 3 and favored against the Lions in Week 5.

Meanwhile the Bears are getting faded hard by the NFL Public Money. They’re trailing significantly across the board, the New England seeing over 80% of both the money and action on an outright win.

Bears vs Patriots Injury Report

There really is only one question everyone cares about ahead of this game. And that was whether it was Jones or Zappe under center. The assumption right now is that it’s Jones.

Jones was able to avoid surgery on his high ankle sprain, which is a good sign. In his absence, the Patriots have gone 2-1, losing to the Packers but blowing out the Lions and Browns.

Week 7 Injury Report

The Bears largely have a clean bill of health. Running Back David Montgomery, who missed Chicago’s loss to the Giants, looked better in Week 6 than he did in Week 5. After averaging just 1.7 yards per carry against the Vikings, Montgomery was up to 4.5 against the Commanders.

Mac Jones vs Bailey Zappe

Depending on who you ask, the ‘QB controversy’ in New England is either somewhat real, or very blown out of proportion.

Either way, reports emerged on Saturday that Mac Jones was angling to play on Monday Night Football. And things are trending in the right direction for the 2021 first round pick playing.

2022: Jones vs Zappe

At first glance the numbers don’t really favor switching back to Mac upon his return. But the Patriots have really been running two different offenses this season.

In 2021, Jones’ aDOT was 7.54. That number has grown by nearly three full yards in his second season. It’s coincided with the acquisition of DeVante Parker, who’s averaging three yards per target more than any Patriots receiver over the last two years with at least 20 targets.

Bailey Zappe vs Mac Jones this season (@gmfb) pic.twitter.com/xrFCvCLees

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 19, 2022

The Patriots offensive line has also settled in with Zappe under center. Jones was pressured three more times on six fewer blitzes than Zappe.

Fields’ Offense Doing Him No Favors

While there’s no QB controversy in Chicago, Justin Fields may wish there was one.

Somewhat surprisingly, Fields has averaged the second-highest time in the pocket this year (2.7 seconds). He is the only QB averaging more than 2.5 seconds to have started six games and has yet to reach the 1,000 yard mark.

Belichick scouting Justin Fields: “Athletic. Gets out of a lot of trouble with his legs…can see the field.

“You can see him getting better every week and making plays every game.”

— Khari Thompson (@kdthompson5) October 19, 2022

He’s one of just three to have thrown for less than 1,200 yards. Fields has also been sacked a league-high 23 times. His receivers aren’t getting enough separation, and the line can’t hold up long enough for them to eventually get it.

Needless to say, the Bears may be in tough again on Monday.

Bears vs Patriots Pick

Chicago has played in four games this year when the total finished under 40. Weeks 3 and 5 the total finished above the projected line, but only by three in their win over the Texans.

The Bears have covered the 8.5 in five of six games. They lost by 17 in Week 2.

This doesn’t feel like a Patriots team that will blow them out, but do you really want to bank on that Bears offense? Back the under in a grind-it-out kind of Monday nighter.

The Pick: Under 40.5 (-110); 1 Unit