Hawaii vs San Diego State Odds, Lines and Picks

• The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are at San Diego State to face the Aztecs Saturday night (Oct 8)
• Hawaii has the second-worst run defense, SDSU offers the worst passing offense in the NCAA
• See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction

The rebuild at the University of Hawaii is underway, and the results, while expected, have been dreadful.

Even a date with the lowly San Diego State Aztecs might not bring much relief.

The Rainbow Warriors are massive 22-point road underdogs when the two Mountain West schools collide Saturday night (October 8).

It gets underway from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego at 10:30pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on CBS Sports Network.

Hawaii vs San Diego State Odds

Odds as of October 8 from Barstool Sporstbook. 

The latest college football odds have the host Aztecs as distinct -2500 favorites on the moneyline, in a game that has a total of 48.

It’s expected to be sunny and near 80 degrees, though patchy fog could roll in after 11pm local time.

Rainbow Warriors’ Betting Outlook

There is no statistic that seems to bode well in Hawaii’s favor.

Defensively, they are surrendering 45.4 points per game, which ranks 130th of 131 FBS teams, above only the University of Charlotte. The only time they’ve held a team to under 45 points this season was their 24-14 win over Duquesne in Week 3.

Frakes ➡️ Whitford

The Aggies are taking care of business here in Las Cruces! #AggieUp pic.twitter.com/PJMfsXbJUM

— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) September 25, 2022

Last time out against New Mexico State, their defense was run over by the Aggies, who put up 357 rushing yards and a healthy 7.9 yard average per carry.  They’ve also been blasted by the Vanderbilt Commodores, who rang up 404 yards on 44 carries in a 63-10 opening-game romp.

It’s hard to believe, but their offense might be worse than their defense. New head coach Timmy Chang, once the centerpiece of a dynamic passing offense at Hawaii, is watching an offense struggle to put up points.

Longest passing play of this season for #HawaiiFB: Brayden Schager to Caleb Phillips for 40 yardspic.twitter.com/gUBkCvqOqU

— Reece Nagaoka (@reecenagaoka) September 25, 2022

They are averaging 17.4 points per game, ranking 121st in the nation. The passing attack, duties shared by both Brayden Schager and Joey Yellen,  is averaging a paltry 5.02 yards per attempt, and 196.6 yards overall.

Not surprisingly, their rushing game is also on the back page of NCAA stats board. The Rainbow Warriors are averaging 116.6 yards rushing, just 3.76 yards a pop.

Aztecs’ Betting Outlook

San Diego State has had their issues as well, and offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski took the fall after the latest setback.

The Aztecs gave up 35 unanswered second-half points to Boise State, losing 35-13.

𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗷𝗲𝘁𝘀 💨

35 unanswered points.
316 rushing yards.
3-headed rushing attack by @GeorgeHolani, @taylengreen17, and @AshtonJeanty2.

Offense found some rhythm, gained some confidence, and picked up some speed on Friday!#COMPETE | #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/qWSixylCsk

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 2, 2022

Their passing attack was as close to non-existent as it gets: quarterback Braxton Burmeister threw for less yards than the Broncos scored points, going 2-for-8 for 33 yards. In five games, he’s thrown for just 263 yards, with two TD’s and three interceptions.

Liu Aumavae and Kyle Crum offered no support as backups, going 0-for-8 passing. The Aztecs’ passing game is the worst in FBS, averaging just 65.6 passing yards per contest.

https://twitter.com/FTBeard7/status/1566168814642819073

SDSU are a bottom-tier scoring offense, averaging just 19 points per game (116th).

Defensively, they’ve provided a little bit more resistance than their opposition, allowing 25.8 points per game. That takes into account a win over Toledo. Take just FBS games, and the Aztecs are surrendering 30.5 points per game.

Hawaii vs San Diego State Pick

If there’s any defense that can revives SDSU’s pass attack, it has to be the Rainbows. However, maybe the Aztecs want to keep it on the ground, as Hawaii is allowing just under 261 rush yards per game, the second-worst in NCAA.

San Diego State is 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. They’re also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a loss.

Hawaii is the best remedy for a home team, as they are 2-14 ATS against teams with a losing home record.

I don’t know about the massive point spread, but I do know the Rainbows can’t stop anyone. Three teams have blasted this total on their own, and four games have blown through this mark in five starts.

Look for that trend to continue, with another miserable Hawaii L.

The Pick:

• OVER 48 points (-112); 1 unit to win 0.89 units
• Week 5 NCAAF Record: 2-0: Overall: 3-2 ATS, 1-0 o/u; +1.64 units