Breece Hall Now Favored to Win NFL OROY Over Kenny Pickett
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Breece Hall is a +850 favorite to win the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Kenny Pickett has the next shortest odds, followed by a trio of players including Pickett’s teammate George Pickens
- Read below for complete odds, analysis and best bets to win the NFL OROY award
From 2015 to 2018, three running backs took home NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. In the past three years, however, running backs have been shut out.
The Jets Breece Hall is looking to buck that trend this season, and oddsmakers are bullish on his prospects to win the coveted award.
2022 NFL OROY Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) | +850 |
| Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) | +900 |
| Sky Moore (WR, KC) | +1000 |
| George Pickens (WR, PIT) | +1000 |
| Chris Olave (WR, NO) | +1000 |
| Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) | +1100 |
| Jalen Tolbert (WR, DAL) | +1200 |
| Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) | +1400 |
| Drake London (WR, ATL) | +1400 |
| Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) | +1600 |
| Christian Watson (GB, WR) | +1600 |
| Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU) | +1600 |
| Treylon Burks (WR, TEN) | +1800 |
| James Cook (RB, BUF) | +1800 |
| Jameson Williams (WR, DET) | +2000 |
| Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS) | +2000 |
| Desmond Ridder (QB, ATL) | +2000 |
| David Bell (WR, CLE) | +2500 |
| Alec Pierce (WR, IND) | +3000 |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) | +3000 |
| Brian Robinson Jr (RB, WAS) | +3500 |
| Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) | +6000 |
Odds as of August 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook
The 2022 second-round pick now boasts the shortest price tag in the OROY odds at +850. When this NFL Futures market opened up, Hall was actually priced at +800, but a pair of quarterbacks (Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett) had shorter odds.
Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 10 Bets!
Fast forward four and a half months and Willis is priced outside the top 20. He wound up slipping to the third round in the NFL Draft and will be hard-pressed to get off the bench in Tennessee.
Pickett meanwhile, saw his price lengthened to +900 which ranks just behind Hall. There’s no guarantee the Pittsburgh product will be on the field when the season starts though, as he’s in a battle to win the Steelers’ number one job.
Fade Bryce Hall Futures
The bull case on Hall to win OROY is simple. New York invested a lot of draft capital to take him, and he has a history of carrying a heavy workload. In three years at Iowa State, Hall rushed the ball 718 times, earning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors twice.
Breece Hall showing his vision and SPEED 😮💨#Jets pic.twitter.com/n5PK5rrY90
— NewEraNYJets (@NewEraNYJets) August 20, 2022
He’s a three-down back who’s excellent at catching passes out of the backfield. Hall has the talent to be one of the lone bell cow running backs in the league, giving him the potential for an outrageous ceiling should he earn the bulk of the Jets’ backfield touches.
The bear case, however, is just as simple. For starters, the Jets’ offense doesn’t project to be very good. New York finished 22nd on offense per DVOA last season, and have already suffered injuries to starting QB Zach Wilson and one of their top offensive tackles Mekhi Becton.
Secondly, the Jets’ backfield is extremely crowded. Last year’s fourth-round pick Michael Carter will be Hall’s chief competition, and while you shouldn’t read too much into a report that he’s working as the number one back, he is stealing pass-down work in the preseason. The group also includes Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson among others, and they’ll also siphon touches away from Hall in the early going.
Michael Carter is working ahead of Breece Hall right now 🤔 pic.twitter.com/v1KoyOcOqD
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 25, 2022
Betting on Hall is a bet that he’s going to have ridiculous efficiency and production on a team that won’t be very competitive. That’s not a recipe to earn OROY honors.
Believe the Pickens Hype
Apologies to Pickett, but the Steelers rookie to bet on to win OROY is George Pickens. The Georgia product fell to Pittsburgh in the second round, but many experts believe he would have been the first wideout selected had he not had injury setbacks in college.
George Pickens kicked him off like a mule. 👀🤣 lolololol #Steelers pic.twitter.com/hCcuXmPOX6
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) August 21, 2022
Pickens has been the star of Steelers training camp and has balled out in the preseason. He appears to have overtaken Chase Claypool in two receiver sets and at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he’s going to be a lethal red zone target. Put him on your OROY betting card.
Pick: George Pickens (+1000)
Don’t Sleep on Robinson Jr and Likely
Two longshots to consider are Washington’s Brian Robinson and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likley. Robinson is getting first team work in the Commanders backfield ahead of Antonio Gibson, and has a nose for the end zone.
He scored 16 times as a senior at Alabama and has already hit paydirt once in the preseason. He’s a two-down back only, but a monopoly on the goal line work for a team that projects to be run-heavy is worth a flier at +3500.
A touchdown for Brian Robinson Jr.! pic.twitter.com/FEftkli8PI
— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) August 13, 2022
Likely is also worth a sprinkle based on what we’ve seen over the past month. The tight end has been the star of Ravens training camp, and most believe he’s third in line for targets after Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.
He was the number one graded pass catcher in Week 2 of the preseason, hauling in eight receptions for 100 yards and a score.
Isaiah Likely LIT UP Week 2 #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/PrFYRbgIjX
— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 24, 2022
His talent is going to force the Ravens to deploy even more two tight end sets, and if Andrews were to suffer any kind of injury Likely’s ceiling would be sky-high.
Picks: Brian Robinson Jr (+3500) and Isaiah Likely (+6000)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
