ATP Western & Southern Open Men’s Singles Odds & First Round Picks

• The ATP Western and Southern Open begins on Monday, August 15th
• Denis Shapovalov has dropped his opening round match in seven of his past eight tournaments
• See below for complete first-round odds, plus analysis and best picks to target

As the great Bill Belichick famously said, “we’re onto Cincinnati”. That’s the case for the top male tennis players in the world this week as they’ll flock to Cincinnati for the ATP Western and Southern Open.

A star studded group headlines the contenders at the top of the odds board including 2019 champ Daniil Medvedev, 2013 champ Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Nick Kyrgios.

Noticeably absent from that list is Wimbledon champ Novak Djokovic, who ran into travel trouble trying to enter the United States and was forced to withdraw.

ATP Western and Southern Open Round 1 Odds

Odds as of August 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Among the group, only Kyrgios didn’t receive a bye into the round of 32. He’s the biggest name in action in Round 1 on Monday, as he’ll take on Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a match he’s an overwhelming favorite to win.

Shapovalov vs Dimitrov Pick

The Western and Southern Open is the seventh Masters 1000 series event of the season. These tournaments are typically the biggest tennis betting events outside of the Grand Slams, but they haven’t treated Canadian Denis Shapovalov kindly.

He was ousted in Round 1 of last week’s stop in Montreal, and boasts a record of just 5-5 in 1000 series tournaments in 2022. He’s made it past the Round of 32 in just one of his five starts, and that was all the way back in May.

Since the Nadal win in Rome, Denis Shapovalov has lost 8 of his last 9 matches. I question why he let go of Jamie Delgado, esp since his season had been decent till that point?

Winning ATP Cup, AO QF, Dubai SF, and Rome QF (close loss to Ruud) seemed mostly positive to me.

— Vansh (@vanshv2k) August 3, 2022

Early exits have been the norm lately for Shapovalov regardless of the prestige of the event. He’s dropped his opening match in seven of his past eight tournaments, losing to seven players ranked 35th in the world or lower.

Monday’s Round 1 match is a scale up in competition for Shapovalov as he’ll take on world number 19 Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian’s recent form hasn’t been spectacular by any means, but he has been more consistent than Shapovalov.

Digging deep 💪@GrigorDimitrov reels off 5️⃣ straight games for a 6-4 7-5 win against Galarneau.#OBN22 pic.twitter.com/sfKOi4OmMa

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 9, 2022

Dimitrov has made it to at least the Round of 16 in two of his past four 1000 series events, and is 2-1 lifetime against the Canadian.

Pick: Grigor Dimitrov -0.5 (-115)

Rune vs Norrie Pick

Our next Round 1 target is the Holger Rune versus Cameron Norrie match. The latter has been on a nice little run of form lately, while Rune has dropped eight of his past 10 matches.

The 19-year-old from Denmark hasn’t beaten anyone inside the top-60 since Roland Garos, while he has just run off the court by Pablo Carreno Busta 6-0, 6-3 in Montreal.

Norrie on the other hand, has advanced to the Round of 16 in four straight events, with a runner-up result in Mexico, and a semifinal berth at Wimbledon during that stretch.

Spot on all day long!👏@cam_norrie takes out van de Zandschulp 6-1, 6-2 to advance to the third round!@OBNmontreal | #OBN22 

pic.twitter.com/1cfGiReNqJ

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 10, 2022

The world number 11 won his lone career matchup versus Rune, albeit in a three-set thriller. There’s no value on Norrie as a -360 favorite, so play Over 21.5 games instead.

They easily surpassed that total in their first meeting, and Norrie has gone to at least three sets in six of his past nine matchups versus top-50 opposition.

Pick: Over 21.5 (-125)

Don’t Sleep on Alcaraz This Week

Back to the top of the odds board now, as Alcaraz represents a fantastic option in the outright market this week. Some may be thrown off by his collapse in Montreal last week and his post match comments where he admitted to crumbling under the pressure of being the number two seed.

However, the teen has been one of the stars of the ATP Tour this season and we should expect him to use last week’s blunder as motivation this week.

It was the first time that I couldn't handle the pressure… I have to be ready to have this pressure, to have this kind of moments, and to learn how to handle it! 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/dLypEV1Ihg

— Carlos Alcaraz (@carlosalcaraz) August 10, 2022

Alcaraz has won two of the 1000 series events already this season, and owns a remarkable 42-7 record with four titles in 2022 alone.

He also has the benefit of being placed in arguably this week’s most favorable quadrant of the draw. Alcaraz’s most difficult projected opponent prior to the semifinals is Carper Rudd, a player he’s 2-0 against this season.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win