2022 PGA Tour RBC Heritage Odds and Picks

• The 2022 RBC Heritage tees off Thursday, April 14th
• Justin Thomas is the betting favorite, while the field includes five of the top 10 golfers in the world
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The Masters hangover is real, but it looks like it hasn’t claimed as many victims as in previous years. Fresh off the most prestigious golf tournament of the season, five of the top-10 players in the world are making the trip from Augusta National in Georgia to Harbour Town in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage.

Harbour Town is truly one of the most unique courses on the PGA Tour rotation and is capable of producing some unlikely winners. From 2016 to 2019, the RBC Heritage produced four first-time winners on Tour, while last year Stewart Cink emerged victorious at this tournament for the third time at the age of 47.

2022 RBC Heritage Odds

Odds as of April 12th at Caesars Sportsbook

With so much star power teeing it up starting Thursday (April 14) the top of the odds board is much more crowded than usual. Justin Thomas opened as the betting favorite, with Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Cam Smith and Dustin Johnson following closely behind.

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Star Power at the Top of the Board

Morikawa would be the preferred play if targeting the top of the board. Sure, +1400 is a steep price to pay, but his game is tailor made for this track. Harbour Town de-emphasizes driving distance, and places an enormous premium on accuracy and approach play.

Collin Morikawa moves into the top 10. #themasters pic.twitter.com/X5Zg89rZtu

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2022

If we’re talking irons, there’s no better player in the world in my opinion than Morikawa. The two-time Major champ is fresh off gaining 3.76 strokes on the field with his irons during the final round of the Masters, en route to a blistering 5-under par round of 67.

Over the past 50 rounds Morikawa ranks first in the field in ball striking, sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green and seventh in scoring. He underwhelmed in first career start at this event, but rebounded last season with a T7 result.

• Pick: Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Webb Simpson Has Been Dominant at Harbour Town

I’ll be the first to admit that course history is often overrated, but it’s impossible to ignore Webb Simpson’s results at Harbour Town. The 2020 champ has finished inside the top-15 eight times since 2010, and has gained a ridiculous 45 total strokes on the field over the past five years.

Webb Simpson officially sets the RBC Heritage tournament scoring record at -22.

The four of the five lowest scores in tournament history were all set in the 2020 tournament. pic.twitter.com/rgxxojrMSU

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 22, 2020

Injuries have derailed his season so far, but he’s now made three starts over the past month, improving each time out. Last year, Simpson came into this tournament sporting +1200 odds to claim the trophy, so I’ll gladly take a shot on him at +3500 with the assumption that he’s finally healthy.

• Pick: Webb Simpson +3500

Last Five RBC Heritage Champions

2022 RBC Heritage Best Value Picks

1. Sungjae Im (+3000): Ranks sixth in the field in total strokes gained over the past 50 rounds and 11th in scoring. He was on the first page of the leaderboard for most of last week at the Masters, finishing in the positive in every key strokes gained metric. He also putts exceptionally well on Bermuda greens gaining an average of 0.35 strokes on the field on that surface per round.
2. Maverick McNealy (+5000): His iron game has been completely dialed in over the last month, but the elite finishes have been lacking due to a shaky short game. If we zoom out over the past 50 rounds however, McNealy ranks above field average on and around the greens, so he’s likely due some positive regression. He’s gained 8.3 strokes on approach over his past two measured starts, and was lights out in the WGC Dell Match Play as well despite failing to advance out of the group stage. He’s four starts removed from a seventh place result at Riviera, and finished T4 at this event last year.