2022 Valspar Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 2022 Valspar Championship from Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course begins on Thursday (March 17th)
• Keegan Bradley and Gary Woodland offer tremendous value in the outright market
• Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The PGA Tour’s Florida swing concludes with another diabolical test this week at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course. Five of the top-10 players in the world will tee it up on Thursday (March 17th) at the Valspar Championship, in addition to plenty of other big names with Major Championships under their belts.

2022 Valspar Championship Odds

Odds as of March 15th at DraftKings 

Two of those former winners headline our sleepers and longshots betting card, as the superstar presence at the top of the board has opened up plenty of value in the mid-tier within the Valspar Championship odds.

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CLAIM OFFER

Bradley a Ball Striking Savant

Let’s start with Keegan Bradley at +5500. Full disclosure, there are better numbers available if you’re willing to shop around, as I grabbed 66-1 on Tuesday morning. Having said that, +5500 is still a steal, considering some books have him priced at 33-1.

"it's keegan bradley time!" – keegan bradley

— Dylan Dethier (@dylan_dethier) March 14, 2022

Bradley put on a ball striking clinic over the weekend at the Players Championship. He was one of the lone players to shoot under par during Saturday’s second round played in Gale Force winds, and he followed that up with back-to-back 68’s on Sunday and Monday, where he flirted with the lead on the back nine during the final round.

Four birdies in a row for @Keegan_Bradley!

He is one back in search of his first PLAYERS. pic.twitter.com/2LtMazbOVW

— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2022

Ultimately, he wound up finishing fifth, and his game sets up perfectly for the tight, difficult Copperhead course as well. The former PGA Championship winner leads the field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds, and ranks second in ball striking.

Bradley finished second at the Valspar Championship last year, and was the first round leader here in 2016. In addition to his solid showing last week at TPC Sawgrass, he also has 11th and 12th place results in his past six starts.

• Pick: Keegan Bradley to Win (+5500)

Fire Up Woodland

Next up, Gary Woodland at +8000. He disappointed last week at the Players, but prior to that he finished top-5 in back-to-back starts at the Honda and API, and arguably could have won both events.

Like Bradley, Woodland is an elite ball striker when his game is on, and he’s also flashed serious upside with the putter recently. The former U.S. Open champ gained 9.4 strokes combined with the flat stack at Honda and API, in addition to gaining 4 strokes in both tournaments with his ball striking.

330 yards to carry the water.@GaryWoodland has that. 💪 pic.twitter.com/T5Zi12l3yB

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 20, 2022

Woodland won this event early in his career when it was the Transitions Championship, and also owns an eighth place finish on his resume. Let’s take a stab at him in not only the outright market, but in the T-10 category as well.

Pick: Gary Woodland to Win (+8000), T-10 Finish (+275)

Top 20 Value Picks

1. Sebastian Munoz (+275): He’s finished T26 or better in three of his past four starts, and was on the first page of the leaderboard for much of the third round at the Players. He excels on Bermuda greens, gaining an average of 0.08 strokes on the field per round, and has gained at least 8.5 strokes tee-to-green three times in his past seven events.
2. Mito Pereira (+500): The Chilean missed the cut at the Players as well, but it was solely a product of a cold putter. Pereira lost 4.4 strokes on the greens, but was positive in every other key strokes gained metric. The start before at Honda, which is a very similar type of track, he gained 7.5 strokes tee-to-green en route to a 30th place finish, but once again lost over 4 strokes on the greens. The recent poor putting seems like a bit of an outlier, as he was positive with the flat stick in each of his six previous starts. If he can get that part of his game straightened out, his ceiling is incredibly high.