AC Milan vs Inter Milan & Fiorentina vs Juventus – Coppa Italia Semifinals Leg 1

• Two Coppa Italia semifinal first legs will be played this week on Tuesday and Wednesday
• Tuesday features the 231st official Derby della Madonnina while 14-time victors and defending champions Juventus take on Fiorentina on Wednesday
• Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

Italy’s premier knockout tournament, the Coppa Italia, kicks off both semifinal first legs early this week. Firstly, AC Milan takes on Inter Milan at the hallowed San Siro, at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday. This classic Milan derby looks to replicate the thrilling reverse fixture in Serie A just a few weeks ago. The Rossoneri won that contest by a score of 2-1, in a match that featured an Olivier Giroud brace and two late red cards.

Conversely, Fiorentina and Juventus square off in Florence at the Artemio Franchi Stadium at 3:00 pm ET on Wednesday. These sides respectively took down Atalanta and Sassuolo in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals both by just a margin of one goal. This game marks the return of Dusan Vlahovic after his shock January move to Turin, which makes for an invigorating storyline.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Odds

Odds as of Feb 28th at Barstool Sportsbook

Overall, the odds for this Coppa Italia match are very tight featuring plus moneyline odds for every result. In addition, the over on 2.5 total goals is the favored result with odds of -117.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 10 Bets!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD2DYW

CODE: SBD2DYW

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!

CLAIM OFFER

AC Milan’s Defense Has Been Sharp

Nonetheless, AC Milan comes into this Coppa Italia derby with some swagger and good form. Stefano Pioli’s side are unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, and easily skipped past Lazio in the last round by a score of 4-0.

Specifically, their defense has been a bright spot in this run of goof form. During this run, Fikayo Tomori and Alessio Romagnoli have served as the favored centerback partnership.

In fact, over this six game span, AC Milan have only conceded 0.66 goals per game. Moreover, it is also important to point out that in their last match against Inter Milan, they held them to an expected goal tally of just 0.9. The one major setback for AC Milan will be the absence of Sandro Tonali as he sits out for suspension.

Inter’s Tough Run of Form

Contrarily, on the other side of the ball sit Inter Milan, a side experiencing some tough results as of late. The Nerazzurri have only won one match from their last six, in a Coppa Italia victory against Roma.

🎙 | INTERVISTA

Le dichiarazioni di mister Inzaghi alla vigilia della semifinale di andata di #CoppaItaliaFrecciarossa 👇#DerbyMilano #MilanInter pic.twitter.com/uOWnXtPOiu

— Inter ⭐⭐ (@Inter) February 28, 2022

In three matches versus AC Milan, Napoli and Liverpool, who were their three hardest opponents, they were outmatched on xG/xGA every time. Regardless, Inter Milan are fully fit and do still present a plethora of lethal attacking options with the likes of Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko. All in all, I see this one staying under the 2.5 goal mark with odds of -105.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-105)

Fiorentina vs Juventus Odds

For this match, the moneyline results do all have plus odds, but Juventus is favored with valuable odds of +140. However, Fiorentina has juiced odds of -175 to cover the +0.5 spread. 

Expect Fiorentina to Pull a Result Versus Juventus

Undoubtedly, Fiorentina are a different side without the likes of Dusan Vlahovic. But, in the six games since his departure to their Wednesday opponents, they have won three and drawn one. Their offense has been slightly more subdued, but not enough to count them out of this Coppa Italia tie.

#OnThisDay in 1996: a great win at the San Siro in the Coppa Italia second leg semifinal to progress to the final 🏆🇮🇹#ForzaViola 💜 #Fiorentina pic.twitter.com/JLcbhjSv21

— ACF Fiorentina English (@ACFFiorentinaEN) February 28, 2022

In their last Coppa Italia match, Fiorentina surprisingly defeated Atalanta by a score of 3-2. Striker, Krzysztof Piatek scored a brace and could have completed a hat trick if not for a missed penalty in the 71st minute, seconds after his double. Fiorentina know that all it takes is a goal to squeeze a result against Juventus, which should fuel their approach to this Coppa Italia semifinal.

For the 14-time Coppa Italia winners, Juventus, this match is drastically important. Not just for their form, but also for their chances of lifting silverware this season. The Champions League seems unrealistic and the Scudetto, just barely out of reach.

🔋 Charging up for the cup! 🏃‍♂️#FiorentinaJuve #CoppaItaliaFrecciarossa

— JuventusFC 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@juventusfcen) February 28, 2022

However, they have three draws in their last four matches and something just seems to be missing. Vlahovic will not get the best of his former side, at least in Florence during the first leg.

Pick: Draw (+225)