Sentry Tournament of Champions 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

• Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith co-lead the Sentry Tournament of Champions after three rounds by five shots
• Just six golfers within six strokes of the lead in what could be a two-man duel
• See the updated odds below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

Through three rounds of the Sentry Tournament of Champions from Kapalua, HI, the PGA Tour’s best have been eating the course alive. With little wind, the toothless track has yielded incredibly low scores. After 54 holes, Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith have both opened up a five shot edge compared to the rest of their competitors.

Earlier in the day, Justin Thomas shot a course record 12-under, 61, which was matched a short time after by Rahm, who caught the 36-hole leader Smith. Their -26 total after three rounds is the second lowest 54-hole score since 1983. To begin the week, the fiery Spaniard was the betting favorite to take the title at +700, with the Aussie Smith at +1400 to claim victory.

Read on to see the updated odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s final round.

Updated 2022 Sentry Tournament Of Champions Odds

Odds as of January 8th at DraftKings

Rahm With Historical Edge Over Smith

How many times can a player lead by three shots over his closest pursuer entering the day, shoot a 9-under, 64, but get caught by their playing partner? Cameron Smith was the unlucky recipient of such bad luck, when the world number #1 matched the course record with a 61. It goes without saying that both players are on fire this week, with Smith first in strokes gained putting and Rahm first in birdies and SG: off-the-tee.

Lowest opening 54-hole score to par, @PGATOUR history

2014 Patrick Reed, American Express, -27
2022 Jon Rahm, Sentry TOC, -26
2022 Cameron Smith, Sentry TOC, -26
1967 Gay Brewer, Pensacola Open, -25
2005 Pat Perez, American Express, -25
2010 Steve Stricker, John Deere, -25

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) January 9, 2022

The edge has to go to Rahm, however, which is reflected by their current odds. He’s racked up six tour titles to Smith’s three, and has plenty more trophies from the European Tour. Only one of those wins by Rahm was with a teammate at the Zurich Classic, while two of Smith’s three triumphs have occurred at that same team event, so he has just one individual title on the biggest stage.

There’s very little separating the two of them, and they’re both unlikely to slip up too much with their big cushion, so it likely will be a two-man race Sunday, with Rahm the better bet.

2022 Sentry Tournament Of Champions Best Live Value Picks

1. Daniel Berger (+5000): Daniel Berger is the closest challenger should Rahm and Smith both falter in the final round, a whopping five shots behind. Last year, he was exceptional when it counted on the final day, ranking third in Sunday scoring average. He’s been as consistent as they come this week, with three straight 7-under, 66’s. Through 54 holes, he’s first in strokes gained tee-to-green, approaching the green and scrambling.
2. Patrick Cantlay (+8000): Like Berger, Patrick Cantlay was strong in final rounds last season, ranking eighth. He racked up three wins in 2021 en route to the FedEx Cup title. In four of his six PGA Tour titles, he’s shot 67 or better in the final round.