Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Final
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- Daniil Medvedev meets Alexander Zverev for the second this week – this time in the championship match
- Medvedev eked out the round-robin win in a third-set tiebreak; it was his fifth straight win over Zverev
- The odds for this final are about the same as for the round-robin match; we break it down and make a pick
No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev meet Sunday (11am ET) in the finale of the ATP Tour’s season.
As he was in their round-robin match Tuesday, Medvedev is the slight favorite.
Zverev vs Medvedev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [3] Daniil Medvedev (GER) | +2.5 (-115) | +150 | O 23.5 (-105) |
| [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -2.5 (-105) | -180 | U 23.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Nov. 20 at DraftKings
Zverev Upsets Djokovic
Zverev’s odds of beating Djokovic in Saturday’s semifinal were roughly the same as they are for Sunday’s final against Medvedev.
And, similarly, he was on a poor run of success against him. Other than their match at the Olympics, Djokovic had won the last six.
It will be encouraging to the German that he was able to pull it off.
Zverev eked it out 7-6, (4), 4-6, 6-3 in 2.5 hours.
Zverev vs Medvedev Head-to-Head
| 24 (April 20, 1997) | Age | 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| Hamburg, Germany | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-6 |
| 18 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 13 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (March 5, 2021) |
| No. 3 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $27,585,875 | Career Prize Money | $20,389,856 |
| 58-15 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 58-12 |
| 5 | Career Head to Head | 6 |
Medvedev on a Five-Match Streak vs Zverev
As in most of the big events this year, the challenge anyone outside the top two has if they aspire to a title is the same one that faces Zverev Sunday.
Most often, you have to get through both Djokovic and Medvedev, the class of the ATP Tour.
Zverev will face Medvedev in the final of the #NittoATPFinals
3rd meeting in 15 days!!#Djokovic #zverev pic.twitter.com/CT44FJNL6F— Kartheek (@karth__k) November 20, 2021
Zverev has lost the last five to Medvedev – including this week. And the Russian also is the defending ATP Finals champion.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ATP Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (6) | Medvedev |
| 2021 | Paris Masters (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2021 | ATP Cup (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | ATP FInals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | Paris Masters (F) | Indoor Hard | 5-7, 6-4, 6-1 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | ATP FInals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-6 (4) | Zverev |
| 2019 | Masters Shanghai (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-1 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Masters Canada (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Zverev |
| 2018 | Masters Miami (R64) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (5) | Zverev |
| 2017 | Washington (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-4 | Zverev |
| 2016 | St. Petersburg (R16) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 7-5 | Zverev |
Recent Results
The two also met just two weeks ago in the semifinals of the Paris Masters.
Zverev didn’t show for that one. But he showed on Tuesday. The German did everything but win it.
In a match with few break points, there was only one break, to Medvedev. Zverev did an incredible job of winning points on his sometimes-shaky second serve.
But if he wants to win Sunday, he’ll have to improve his success on first serve and try to expend less energy holding n his own serve.
He’ll also have to try to put more Medvedev first serves in play.
Here are the full stats for their round-robin match.
Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Stats – Round-Robin
| Category | Alexander Zverev | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 18 | 14 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 |
| Winners | 40 | 30 |
| Unforced Errors | 40 | 34 |
| Points Won on 1st Serve | 70% | 79% |
| Points Won on 2nd Serve | 65% | 59% |
| Break Points Saved | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Return points Won on 1st Serve | 21% | 30% |
| Return points Won on 2nd Serve | 41% | 35% |
| Break Points Converted | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Total Points | 104 | 112 |
Zverev vs Medvedev Pick
Medvedev still has the Davis Cup finals this season. Zverev isn’t playing; this will be his final match of 2021.
Zverev also is an ATP Finals champion. In 2018, Djokovic beat him easily in the round-robin. But then he came back to get his revenge in the final.
Will history repeat itself?
We like his chances, despite being the underdog at +150. We also like the odds on a first-set tiebreak (+260).
Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+140)
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
