UFC Vegas 41 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – Costa vs Vettori

• The UFC remains at the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 41 before back-to-back stacked pay-per-views
• Paulo Costa returns for the first time in over a year opposite Marvin Vettori in the main event
• See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 41 main card, below

The UFC remains at the UFC Apex for one more week before having back-to-back pay-per-views in Abu Dhabi on Fight Island and at Madison Square Garden in New York City. In the main event of UFC Vegas 41, which goes down on Saturday, October 23, Paulo Costa makes his return against Marvin Vettori. Vettori is a slight -140 favorite in the UFC Vegas 41 odds with the comeback on the Brazilian at +120.

UFC Vegas 41 main card airs live on ESPN+ at 4 PM EST. The table below shows UFC odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.

Make sure to check out the latest sportsbook promos before placing your bets for UFC Vegas 41.

UFC Vegas 41 Odds

All odds as of Oct. 18 at FanDuel

UFC Vegas 41 Main Event Betting Analysis

Both Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori are coming off title fight losses to Israel Adesanya, as Costa suffered a TKO loss to Adesanya last September at UFC 253 while Vettori lost all five rounds in a decision loss back in June at UFC 263. Now, both men will look to return to the win column and hopefully earn another crack at the champ with another win or two.

Costa & Vettori Recent Fights

This is a fascinating fight and one that did make sense to book as they both were coming off the loss to the champ, but where the winner goes from here is uncertain. Costa enters this fight coming off the loss to Adesanya where he made a ton of excuses and said he got drunk the night before the fight and that impacted his performance. Yet, he does come from a good camp, and the long layoffs don’t usually impact him. Vettori, meanwhile, doesn’t have much KO power, but he overwhelms his opponents with volume and grappling.

In the lead-up to the fight, Vettori’s manager said Costa would be the one to shoot and turn into a wrestler, but I believe that is more talk to get into the Brazilian’s head, as Vettori will more likely shoot.

Costa & Vettori Stats

Paulo Costa has legit one-punch KO power, but Marvin Vettori has never been finished in his career. The Brazilian also throws a ton of volume and isn’t scared to get hit back as he lands 7.03 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 6.7. Vettori, meanwhile, only lands 3.88 and absorbs 3.04.

On the feet, Costa will be too much for the Italian but it will really come down to whether or not Vettori can get the fight to the mat. He averages 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes, however, Costa does have an 80 percent takedown defense. With that, he will be able to stuff the Italians takedowns and will be able to piece up Vettori over five rounds to likely win a decision as Vettori is super durable and hard to finish. Costa to win by decision in the UFC Vegas 41 odds will be listed at a good price when it becomes available.

Pick: Paulo Costa (+120)

Grant Dawson UFC Odds & Betting Analysis

Grant Dawson is undefeated in the UFC, and he made the move to lightweight officially in his last fight. He was supposed to face Diego Ferreira, who is ranked, but he had to pull out, and Ricky Glenn stepped up on about a month’s notice.

Dawson & Glenn Recent Fights

Both Dawson and Glenn are former featherweights who moved up to lightweight and have found success. Glenn made his return to the sport in June after nearly three years away and got a 37-second KO win, however, this is a very tough matchup for him.

Dawson has been improving on the feet. However, expect him to shoot on Glenn often and get the fight to the ground and pound him and either look for the TKO or submission. Glenn is durable but I do think Dawson will eventually find the finish and remain undefeated in the UFC. The moneyline price on Dawson in the UFC Vegas 41 odds is a little juicy, so look for a UFC prop for Dawson to finish Glenn inside the distance.

Pick: Grant Dawson (-350)

Other UFC Vegas 41 Odds & Picks:

1. Jessica-Rose Clark (-130): I like Clark to be able to take this fight to the ground and be able to grind out a decision win.
2. Nick Negumereanu (-210): Negumereanu doesn’t throw a ton of volume, but Villanueva is there to be hit and will eventually connect and get the TKO win.
3. Seung Woo Choi (-290): Choi looks legit and will be able to piece up Caceres on the feet to earn a decision win.
4. Dwight Grant (+110): This fight should stay standing, and I expect Grant to throw more volume and land the cleaner shots to win a decision.