Arizona State vs Stanford Odds and Picks
By Chris Hatfield in College Football
Updated: October 7, 2021 at 9:50 am EDTPublished:
- Two conference foes Arizona State and Stanford face off Friday night at 10:30pm ET
- Both teams will be looking to avoid a hangover game after coming off two huge wins
- Read below for an analysis and prediction
Pac-12 after Dark returns with a matchup of two very perplexing football teams. #22 Arizona State (4-1) hosts Stanford (3-2) at 10:30pm ET Friday night on ESPN.
Stanford defeated Arizona State, 20-13, in their most recent meeting in 2018. The Cardinal are coming off its biggest win of the season, an overtime thriller and defeat of previously undefeated and Top 5 Oregon. An argument can certainly be made that Oregon gave the game away more than Stanford won it.
Arizona State vs Stanford Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | +13.5 (-115) | +360 | U 51 (+100) |
| [22] Arizona State | -13.5 (-105) | -490 | O 51 (-110) |
Odds as of October 8th on Draftkings
Like its counterpart, the Sun Devils are coming off their biggest win of the season. A 42-23 sound defeat of UCLA. Arizona State has looked quite impressive at times.
To the point where, at times, you could make the argument for them to be the best team in the Pac 12. They’ve also struggled with consistency as illustrated by their 27-17 loss to BYU.
Cardinal Trends
There aren’t many strong trends pointing either way in this one. But there are a few of note that involve Stanford, road games, and being an underdog:
- Stanford is 5-0 ATS in it’s last five road games
- Stanford is 10-5 ATS in it’s last 15 games as an underdog of 7 or more points
- Stanford is 5-1 ATS in the last two years in conference road games
𝗪𝗛𝗢𝗦𝗘 𝗛𝗢𝗨𝗦𝗘⁉️#GoStanford pic.twitter.com/EHSCaGwEqe
— Stanford Football (@StanfordFball) October 3, 2021
Sun Devils’ Defense Impresses
Arizona State is a legit threat to win the Pac-12 South. Arizona State may be an undervalued, impressive team at every spot on the field but the Sun Devils’ most impressive asset has been its defense. Through five games, they lead the Pac-12 in yards allowed per game and are second in yards per play allowed.
#VictoryMonday type of party.
🔱 @presidentjacc pic.twitter.com/6E8b5FVlRr
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 4, 2021
When you dig into some of the more advanced numbers, you start to see just how good the defense is. After allowing 23 points in the first half to UCLA, Arizona State completely flipped the switch and shut out the Bruins in the second half.
UCLA’s success rate plummeted from 49% and 58% in the first two quarters to 23% and 25%. That’s one of the more prolific offenses in the country. This is also one of the many instances of the Sun Devils’ defense shutting things down.
If the Sun Devils’ defense can be consistent for an entire game, it could be a nightmare for Stanford.
Cardinal D Cause for Concern
Unlike its counterpart, Stanford’s defense has had some serious issues this season. To put it plainly, anytime you give up 23 points to Vanderbilt, your defense isn’t very good. The Cardinal were able to upset Oregon in spite of their defense then because of it. Oregon had a total of 414 yards of offense but were unable to overcome its 10 penalties.
'Night, fam.
We had ourselves a DAY.#GoStanford pic.twitter.com/CXEScNgyJ3
— Stanford Football (@StanfordFball) October 3, 2021
The Stanford defense comes into Friday night ranking 118th in success rate allowed. To put it a little more plainly, teams don’t struggle to move the ball on them very often. Stanford ranks 120th in havoc rate. They don’t force many sacks, tackles for loss or batted balls.
The rushing defense has allowed the most yards on the ground in the conference. It isn’t particularly close, either. The Cardinal have given up 1,064 rushing yards. They are the only team in the conference that has allowed more than 1,000 yards rushing in five games.
Signs that it’s not 2013 any more: Stanford has the Pac-12’s worst rush defense and the second-worst rush offense in the conference.
— Joe Healey (@JoeHealey42) October 4, 2021
Stanford’s defensive issues are a massive concern going on the road. It sounds generic, but you have to pack a defense if you hope to compete in conference road games. To this point, there is little to suggest the Cardinal are capable of doing this.
Prediction
This spread has shifted in favor of Arizona State. It opened at 10 points in some spots and is as high as 13.5 now in some spots.
I have to agree with the move. The biggest mismatch that jumps out is Arizona’s State’s offense is fifth in success rate and Stanford’s defense is ranked 118th in success rate.
#Pac12FB Offensive Player of the Week, presented by @Nextiva: Jayden Daniels. 😈
Full release ➡️ https://t.co/P1vBcwHZ6G#ForksUp | @ASUFootball pic.twitter.com/Mc9oDmaMMK
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) October 4, 2021
I’ll back the Sun Devils here and will likely be involved in their total, along with first-half spread. I think this has the makings of being a complete blowout as Arizona State looks to make a statement. I also don’t think it’s a bad time to sprinkle in an Arizona State to win the conference future.
- Pick: Arizona State -13.5 (-105)
Sports Writer
Writer, podcaster, and long-time Sports Handicapper. Chris' work has been featured in websites such as SBNation, 247sports among others. He currently co host a podcast called “What High School Did You Go To?” that focuses on the University of Louisville athletics as well as College Sports as a whole
