2021 PGA Tour Championship Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks
By Chris Amberley in Golf
Published:
- The top-30 players in the FedExCup standings will tee it up Thursday (September 2nd) at East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship, the final event of the FedExCup Playoffs
- Two-time champ Rory McIlroy has finished top-8 in this event in four straight appearances
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The Tour Championships is finally here. That means one golfer will be walking away with a $15 million dollar payday on Sunday, and the FedExCup title.
The top-30 players remaining in the FedExCup standings will begin their quest for the massive purse on Thursday (September 2nd) at East Lake Golf Club, in Atlanta, Georgia, with last week’s winner Patrick Cantlay beginning the tournament with a two-stroke lead.
2021 Tour Championship Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win FedExCup | Lowest 72-Hole Score Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +2500 | +1200 |
| Sungjae Im | +4500 | +3500 |
| Jason Kokrak | +10000 | +4500 |
Odds as of August 30th at DraftKings.
Of course, Cantlay is fresh off an incredible playoff win at the BMW Championship over Bryson DeChambeau. Cantlay repeatedly saved his tournament life with his putter, before finally delivering the knockout blow on the sixth extra hole.
In terms of the outright market, you can either wager on who will win the FedExCup, or who will finish with the lowest 72-hole score at East Lake.
One player who’s had a ton of success at this event is Rory McIlroy. He’s claimed victory twice, and is coming off his best performance since he won at Wells Fargo back in May.
McIlroy Is Money at East Lake
The four-time Major winner finished fourth at the BMW Championship, gaining strokes across the board while pouring in 24 birdies and an eagle. McIlroy gained over 10.5 strokes total on the field for just the second time since February of 2020, and did most of his damage with his driver and putter.
Pure as can be. 🏌️♂️@McIlroyRory is inching closer to the lead @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/StsCULYynK
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 26, 2021
McIlroy was +4.6 in both of those metrics, averaging 330 yards off the tee and 1.6 putts per green in regulation.
Yes, he’ll start eight shots back of Cantlay when the tournament begins, but few players have had as much success at this course as Rory. He’s finished T-8 or better in four straight appearances, with two victories sprinkled in. He was also the runner-up back in 2014, and dating back to that year, he’s gained at least 6.5 strokes tee-to-green on the field four separate times.
Pick: Rory McIlroy to Win FedExCup (+2500)
Im Trending In the Right Direction
After an inconsistent regular season on Tour, Sungjae Im has turned it on over the last month. He’s finished 24th, 16th and 3rd in his past three tournaments, gaining at least 5.7 strokes tee-to-green in each start.
Last week, he finished fourth in strokes gained approach and putting, while checking in at number 10 off the tee.
Im Strokes Gained Data Ranks – Last Week
| T2G | OTT | APP | SG | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Im placed 11th at the Tour Championship last year, but is in his best form since early 2020. Strokes gained approach and putting have proven to be the two most predictive stats for success at East Lake over the past five years, and Im excels in both categories.
Making birdies look easy.
Sungjae Im rolls it in on 18 to move into 3rd. pic.twitter.com/KMtZcrXUa4
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 28, 2021
He’s gained strokes with his irons in eight straight tournaments, while gaining at least 1.4 stokes putting in 13 events in 2021.
Also working in his favor, is his propensity for success on Bermuda greens. Im gains an average of 0.4 strokes on the field per round on Bermuda greens, like they feature at East Lake, which is by far his best mark on any putting surafce.
Pick: Sungjae Im Lowest 72 Hole Score (+3500)
Don’t Sleep On Kokrak
You can’t target proficient iron players and putters without mentioning Jason Kokrak, especially at +4500 odds to post the lowest 72-hole score.
The two-time winner on tour this season finished fifth and 10th in those metrics respectively last week, and ranks fourth in strokes gained putting over the past 50 rounds.
It’s on, @playofffinale. I advanced and am heading to the Tour Championship — the final event of FedExCup Playoffs next week in Atlanta! 🏆⛳️ #LetsGo #ReachHigher #FedExCup #TourChampionship #Playoffs @pgatour pic.twitter.com/auGbk5i29o
— Jason Kokrak (@jaykokrak) August 30, 2021
In addition to the impressive work on the greens, he ranks sixth in the field in approach shots within 15 feet over the same timeframe, and ninth in Par-5 scoring. That last stat is significant because the two Par-5’s at East Lake are the two easiest holes on the course, and players need to make birdie every time they step on one of those two tee boxes.
Pick: Jason Kokrak Lowest 72 Hole Score (+4500)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
