2021 PGA Tour BMW Championship Odds and Picks

• The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue with the BMW Championship from Owings Mills, MD on Thursday, August 26th
• Jon Rahm is the heavy +550 favorite at Caves Valley Golf Club after nearly winning The Northern Trust
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

After Tony Finau won the Northern Trust in a playoff over Cameron Smith, the top-70 on the FedEx Cup points standings continue in their quest for the FedEx Cup. The field has been trimmed from 125 to 70, with those 70 fighting for a spot in the Tour Championship over Labor Day weekend.

The top-30 after the BMW Championship will qualify for the season-ending Tour Championship, where the winner of that tournament takes home the FedEx Cup and the $15 million dollar prize. The BMW is being held at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, where it will host a PGA Tour event for the very first time. It plays to a par-71 and is over 7,200 yards.

Some interesting names that failed to qualify for the BMW include Bubba Watson (81), Adam Scott (90) and Jason Day (114), with 2021 PGA Champion Phil Mickelson narrowly making it right on the number.

2021 BMW Championship Odds

Odds as of August 24th

Rory McIlroy Sports Intriguing Value

When scouring the board, Rory McIlroy’s name sticks out like a sore thumb at +2800 to win outright. Given that tournament favorite Jon Rahm has such low +550 odds that are scary to wager on, the Ulsterman presents tremendous value. He’s always shown an innate ability to peak at the right time in the FedEx Cup playoffs, as he’s racked up five victories, second most all-time.

Most All-Time FedEx Cup Playoff Event Victories

Before a middling result at the Northern Trust, the two-time FedEx Cup champion (2016, 2019), had posted two really encouraging results, a T-12 at the WGC in Memphis, and a T-4 at the Olympics, where he lost in a supersized playoff for bronze.

In his last twelve rounds, McIlroy is first in strokes gained: ball striking, second tee-to-green, and fourth in SG: approach. Perhaps most importantly, his at times balky putter has come around, as he was 18th on the greens at Liberty National. Given his penchant to save his best for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, his +2800 odds are awfully enticing.

Last Five BMW Championship Winners

All five wins did not come at Caves Valley Golf Club

2021 BMW Championship Best Value Picks

1. Viktor Hovland (+3500): At the Northern Trust, Viktor Hovland was squarely in the mix heading into the final day, just three strokes back. A brutal quadruple bogey led to an uncharacteristically poor round. He should be able to shake that off since he has a win (BMW International Open), and two more top-15’s in his last five times teeing it up. Third in birdie average, sixth in SG: off-the-tee and eleventh tee-to-green on the season.
2. Sam Burns (+5000): Sam Burns has enjoyed a breakout year, one that has resulted in his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Just two starts ago, he nearly added to that, losing a playoff at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He’s fourth in birdie average and 15th in strokes gained: putting on the campaign, and is coming off a solid T-21 at the Northern Trust.
3. Erik van Rooyen (+10000): Just three tournaments ago, Erik van Rooyen won his first PGA Tour event. In the FedEx Cup opener, the South African was in the final group for the Monday finish and was right in the hunt on the back nine before an untimely quadruple bogey on the eleventh hole. He still battled back for a seventh place result and at these long odds, worth a flier to win outright and in the top 5/10/20 markets.